Chiefs vs Ravens Props: Justice Hill
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It’s been a revolving door at running back for the Baltimore Ravens all season long. Injuries have ravaged a once-deep backfield with both J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell suffering season-ending injuries.
While Gus Edwards is the short-yardage battering ram, Justice Hill has emerged as the lead back for the Ravens. It’s been a slow switch, but snap counts have shifted in favor of Hill. In the Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans, Hill outsnapped Edwards 39 to 23.
Hill finished with three carries and one reception more than Edwards, outgaining the bruiser by 38 yards. I am a firm believer in Hill’s explosiveness — he averages 4.6 yards per carry — and the Ravens’ effort in involving the fourth-year back more.
That’s why my favorite bet of Sunday’s AFC Championship is Hill's over 48.5 rushing + receiving yards prop.
The tickets are going to pour in on Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards prop after his dominant performance (11 rushes, 100 yards, two touchdowns) against Houston. And I understand why — he’s one of the most elusive players in football. But that also provides value on under-the-radar players, like Hill.
Extra pressure or a QB spy on Jackson means more opportunities for the Ravens' skill-position players. The recipe has already been laid out when it comes to moving the football against the Chiefs — they are elite defending the pass but are extremely susceptible on the ground.
In general, K.C. is 27th in DVOA against the run and opposing running backs average 85.3 yards per game. Take a look at last week; both James Cook and Ty Johnson combined for 100 yards. If you factor in scrambles, Josh Allen racked up 72 yards of his own.
You won’t beat the Chiefs through the air. While Patrick Mahomes is still their quarterback, it’s been the pass defense that has powered this team throughout the season. They are inside the top five both in DVOA and passing yards allowed per game.
Their one chink in the armor is passes to the RB position. Kansas City ranks in the bottom 10 when it comes to DVOA and allows nearly 30 yards per game through the air. That’s where Hill is best.
Over his last four games, Hill has caught at least two passes in each of them. He's averaged five targets per game over that span and has broken a 19-plus yard gain through the air three separate times.
Last week, Hill rushed for 66 yards against a much-tougher Texans defense. He also didn’t play late, with the game fully out of hand. That won’t happen against the Chiefs in what is also a much easier matchup.
Back Hill to have a strong Sunday as he continues to rise the ranks as the No. 1 back in Baltimore.
Pick: Justice Hill Over 48.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120; DraftKings).
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