Sean Koerner’s projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs should be your top resource for everything prop-related for this year’s NFL playoffs.
According to Koerner's projections, there are a couple value plays that stand out this week for this Super Wild Card Weekend matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Let’s jump right in.
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NFL Props: Chiefs-Steelers
Tyreek Hill Under 70.5 Receiving Yards
A Tyreek Hill under is never comfortable. He’s one of the most dynamic players in the game and on any given Sunday is capable of putting up big numbers.
This week, however, there is some reason for concern.
Hill reportedly hurt his heel in pregame warmups last week and ended up playing only 14 snaps, corralling just one catch for two yards. While he has no official injury designation heading into this game, he was downgraded to a limited participant in practice late in the week, indicating he’s likely still not 100%.
Hill has been less of a factor in the offense over the second half of the season, as well, failing to gain more than 40 receiving yards in four of his last six contests. That also includes three performances (including the injury-shortened day in Week 18) with 25 or fewer yards.
While the Steelers defense isn’t exactly the fear-inducing unit it has been in year’s past, it has been surprisingly good against the pass. Per Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh finished the season with a -0.4% pass DVOA, the eighth-best mark in the league.
Hill has also failed to surpass this 70.5-yard mark in four of his last six games, which includes a two-catch, 19-yard performance against this same Steelers defense just three weeks ago.
This total is also above our projection for Hill. Koerner’s projections have him finishing with just 65.5 yards against Pittsburgh, a healthy five yards below the current number.
Ben Roethlisberger Over 23.5 Completions
It hasn’t been pretty for Ben Roethlisberger this season. While he’s often looked like a quarterback pushing the limits on his time in the NFL, he’s also done just enough to lead his team to the playoffs.
In a game with a healthy 12.5-point spread in favor of the Chiefs (check real-time NFL odds here), a strong dose of Big Ben — in perhaps the final game of his career — is almost certainly on the docket.
Given the projected game script, this completion total offers significant value on Sunday night. Roethlisberger has already surpassed this total in nine of 16 games this season, with six of those being in losing efforts when the Steelers have been forced into catch-up mode.
Roethlisberger also has an advantageous matchup through the air this week against the 20th-ranked Chiefs pass defense. With the Steelers likely playing at a deficit for most of this game, we should see that pass-first offense come to fruition earlier than the Steelers would like.
We’ve also seen this scenario play out in the Steelers' last two playoff games with Roethlisberger under center. In those games (as recently as 2020), he completed 37 and 47 passes, each of which resulted in losses.
While I don’t expect the Steelers to win this game, I do expect that we’ll see one last loaded box score for Roethlisberger before the curtains close on his NFL career.
