If you've seen my preview for the Steelers-Chiefs game, you already know that I'm targeting a play on the over in this contest. Although the market is moving against me, I'm going to trust Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger when he says they're approaching this game with a carefree attitude.
As a result, we can use Roethlisberger's comments to provide further context in building a narrative on how we expect this game to unfold. That will create the foundation of our same-game parlay, which has seven legs with odds at +3500.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting same-game parlays here.
Chiefs-Steelers Same-Game Parlay
Over 45.5 (-115)
I'm backing my original play on the over, so naturally, this will make my card. Since 2005, the over is on a 7-0 run in Steelers' games with a total that's 46.5 points or lower and a temperature that's 31 degrees or lower.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-125)
With the playoffs getting underway, it would behoove the Chiefs to get Kelce going. The All-Pro tight end has caught at least one touchdown pass in each of his last three games compared to Tyreek Hill, who has one in his last seven.
Steelers Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-145)
This play ties back in with our first leg for the over.
Field goals likely won't cut it against this Chiefs team. The Steelers will need to put some points on the board and convert more than one of the four red-zone opportunities from the first meeting.
Ben Roethlisberger Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-121)
The Steelers played their past two games in a playoff-style atmosphere. With a postseason berth on the line, Roethlisberger threw the ball at least 44 times in both games.
If the Steelers intend to play fast and loose as Big Ben said, it's less likely that they'll dial things back against this potent Chiefs offense.
Darrel Williams Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Williams was a limited participant during practice this week and remains questionable for the game due to a toe injury. He was largely ineffective in the regular-season finale with seven carries for just 17 yards. Derrick Gore carried the ball seven times and averaged 4.3 yards, while Jerick McKinnon got five carries for 24 yards.
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire already ruled out, Patrick Mahomes could play a more prominent role in the Chiefs' rushing attack. Mahomes led the team with nine carries and 54 yards in Week 18.
Tyreek Hill Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Hill hasn't quite been himself since his return from COVID-19 protocols. Mahomes mentioned the receiver was "exhausted" in his first game back.
Until I see otherwise, I'll be looking to fade the over in Hill's receiving yards for the time being.
Byron Pringle Over 30.5 (-110)
With Hill working his way back in terms of conditioning, Pringle has been the beneficiary in the Chiefs' passing game with 19 targets in his past three games and at least 35 receiving yards per contest.
With Pringle emerging as a reliable option for Mahomes, I project that he'll continue to be rewarded with more targets and opportunities.
