Chiefs vs Vikings Odds, Picks for Week 5: Spread, Total, Prediction
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
Here's everything you need to know about Chiefs vs Vikings odds and picks for Week 5, including the spread, the total and our expert prediction.
Looking at Chiefs vs. Vikings odds for Week 5, one thing is clear: the potential for fireworks is paramount as this game has the highest total on the board at 52.5. The spread sits at -3.5 in favor of the Chiefs across the oddsboard, except at PointsBet, who's hanging a -3 on Kansas City.
Two high-powered offenses square off in the marquee game of the late afternoon slate on Sunday. There won’t be many stops on the fast track inside U.S. Bank Stadium. No need to overthink this handicap, points will light up the scoreboard with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and Travis Kelce. Of course, there's also potential for off-field fireworks with the presence of Taylor Swift looming at every Chiefs game.
Let’s previe Kansas City and Minnesota and then make a Chiefs vs. Vikings betting pick and prediction.
Chiefs vs. Vikings
Matchup Analysis
The Vikings hold the edge over the Chiefs in yards per play gained this season. Both rank inside the top five on a per-play basis, with the Vikings again having the advantage in explosive plays. Notably, 7.9% of all Minnesota plays have gained 20+ yards this season, behind only the league-leading Dolphins.
Kirk Cousins shoulders the offensive load, with a league-leading 11 touchdown passes. While this matchup isn’t an easy one for Minnesota's offense, the Chiefs have a total DVOA schedule rank of 24, meaning their defensive numbers could be inflated.
The Vikings offense stands a better chance of staying on schedule if they can run the ball effectively on standard downs. The Chiefs have allowed 4.6 yards per carry to opposing ball carriers, which ranks 26th. The Vikings don’t have the explosiveness in the backfield to create instant scores, but it will take some of the pressure off of Cousins when it comes to converting third downs.
Under Brian Flores, the Vikings defense is severely overmatched in this game. Flores has no choice but to try and create pressure by blitzing, as this unit has sent an extra defender in pass rush on a league-high 57% of the opposition’s pass attempts.
If the Vikings' staff continues its aggressive ways against Mahomes, it’s a recipe for explosive plays and quick scores. Over the course of his career, Mahomes has a 124.8 rating when blitzed, according to Sharp Football. This is mainly a function of Mahomes' incredible ability to see the field and avoid taking sacks.
The median mark for the other top-10 quarterbacks in the rate at which they take a sack when facing pressure is approximately 15%. Mahomes has a sack rate of 3.8% when facing pressure, by far the lowest in the league.
Bet Kansas City vs. Minnesota at FanDuel
Another metric which should factor into a high-scoring affair is the pace at which these teams play. Minnesota is playing at the fourth-fastest pace, running a play every 25.94 seconds. The Chiefs aren’t far behind, running a play every 27.83 seconds. More importantly, when the situation is neutral and the game is within single digits, the Chiefs have the seventh-fastest pace of play.
Mahomes rarely plays poorly in consecutive games. As Evan Abrams pointed out in his Week 5 betting primer, when Mahomes passes for 225 or fewer yards and throws an interception in a game, he rebounds in a big way. While this has only occurred three times in his career, the Chiefs QB has led his team to 40+ points in all three of the games that followed his down performance.
The Vikings simply do not have the personnel to slow down a motivated Mahomes, and this situation is ripe for another Chiefs spike week.
Minnesota faces a true lose-lose situation. If it stays aggressive, it is up against one of the better quarterbacks against the blitz we have seen in the NFL to date. If the Vikings keep two safeties back to limit the big play, the Chiefs have already shown they can gash teams with their ground attack.
Notably, 18.2% of rushes by Kansas City have gained 10+ yards, which is second in the league. The Chiefs also happen to be the most successful offense on third downs, gaining 9.4 yards on average on third-down situations.
Chiefs vs. Vikings
Betting Picks & Predictions
Mahomes has played 44 regular-season games away from Arrowhead Stadium throughout his career. The over has cashed at a 63.6% rate in those away games.
When Mahomes is outside of the division and on the road, the over is 18-10 (64.3%). Against the NFC, that rate increases to 72.7% (8-3).
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