Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle represent the most popular NFL player prop bets for Saturday's Wild Card Round matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers.
Each of those players went bonkers their last time out against the Seahawks, scoring a touchdown each with 230 combined yards.
Our premier data analytics expert Nick Giffen assessed the value for these most popular picks, which primarily target the anytime touchdown marketplace.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Seahawks vs. 49ers Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown anytime (-170)
- George Kittle to score a touchdown anytime (+140)
- Christian McCaffrey to rush for over 75.5 rushing yards (-110)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Saturday morning. The best prices on the market are laid out below.
The best pick out of the lot goes to George Kittle's anytime touchdown prop. The fair value price is +170 — at PointsBet's price of +140, you're paying a 5.5% premium.
But at Caesars, you can nab that prop at a market-best price of +180. With that in mind, you're getting a 1.3% betting edge.
Effectively, you're receiving a 1.3% discount on that line. Another way to think about it: you're accumulating 1.3% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Christian McCaffrey's anytime touchdown prop isn't bad either — in fact, it's exactly fair value at DraftKings at -150.
For McCaffrey's rushing yard prop, PointsBet's line at o75.5 is also just about fair value. Our median projection for how many yards McCaffrey will nab on the ground is 75.
