Finding the best Christian McCaffrey player props for the Lions-49ers NFC Championship Game is a bit tricky.
Firstly, I'm on 49ers -7. Detroit usually struggles away from home and despite the pristine conditions these teams will play in on Sunday, I think San Francisco bounces back from a shaky offensive performance against the Packers and finds its way to the Super Bowl.
With that, the presumption normally would be that the 49ers will be in control of the game throughout, playing with a lead. That would lend itself to thinking they'll run the ball more and that McCaffrey should have a big day on the ground.
Here's the problem: Detroit's defense ranks 16th in Pass DVOA and first in Rush DVOA.
In the playoffs, Kyle Shanahan tends to slow games down by running the ball and milking the clock. He's yet to get the 49ers to a Super Bowl, so it clearly hasn't worked out too well for him so far. It also didn't work out as the Falcons' offensive coordinator when, I don't know if you remember this, his offense came to a screeching halt and blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl back in February 2017.
So, assuming the 49ers are playing with a lead, does Shanahan focus more on attacking the weaker point of the Lions defense, or does he stick with what he's done in the past and focus on running the ball?
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Rushing Props
Attempts: 18.5 (-110/-110; FanDuel)
Yards: 84.5 (-115/-115; DraftKings)
McCaffrey’s rush attempts prop is 18.5 (-110/-110) at FanDuel. Both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon have him projected for at least 19.1 carries. McCaffrey hasn’t gone over that total since Thanksgiving, though, and even then it was just 19.
Again, given Shanahan’s play-calling history, as well as the fact that the 49ers are laying seven points, this seems like the prop to target. McCaffrey is San Francisco’s best offensive player, and it would make sense to get the ball in his hands as much as possible and play to this offense’s biggest strength, which is him.
Both Koerner and Raybon have McCaffrey projected for 91 rushing yards on the dot, as well, which is a noteworthy edge to the over at 84.5. In this market, unlike below, I'd bet on the production instead of the volume from McCaffrey, despite the fact that he's facing the NFL's best run defense.
Receiving Props
Receptions: 4.5 (-105/-125, ESPN BET)
Yards: 34.5 (-110/-110, FanDuel)
Koerner has McCaffrey pegged for 5.1 receptions and Raybon has him at 4.8. He has caught more than 4.5 passes in three of his last four games, with the one where he didn’t reach this number coming in Week 17 when he didn’t finish the 49ers’ win over the Commanders.
McCaffrey didn’t go over this total in six of his first eight regular-season games. Since then, including last week’s win over the Packers, he’s hit the over in seven of the 49ers’ last 10 games.
That doesn’t mean the yardage has been as successful for bettors, though. McCaffrey has only gone over 36.5 receiving yards twice in his last eight games despite having at least five catches five times.
If you’re betting McCaffrey in the receiving market, betting on volume with the over on receptions seems like the safe play.
Verdict
My favorite play is on McCaffrey's receptions. Detroit's stout run defense has me looking toward the passing game for San Francisco, and McCaffrey's recent record with receptions shows he will be part of the 49ers' aerial attack even if they're ahead.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (-105, ESPN BET)
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