49ers vs Bengals Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | +175 |
Brock Purdy is officially cleared to play, which has affected the 49ers vs. Bengals odds for NFL Week 8.
Regardless of who was set to start under center for the 49ers, I expected the Bengals to stay within the number in San Francisco. Anytime (and anywhere) a healthy Joe Burrow is catching more than a field goal, it's likely the Bengals are the side to play.
Let's break down the matchup and reveal my 49ers vs. Bengals pick.
Pick: Bengals +5.5
It’s difficult to put into context just how much Burrow’s calf injury impacted the Bengals' overall performance. Cincinnati is the third-most pass-heavy team in football, opting to pass at a 67.1% rate through six games, even with Burrow's injury looming over the offense.
The Bengals have produced the fewest explosive plays as an offense of any team in football, but these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Burrow should be healthier after the bye week. He was trending in that direction before the bye and we started to see signs of improved health back in Week 5 in Arizona.
Over the first four games of the season, Burrow averaged 145 yards passing per game and threw just two touchdowns. Over his previous two games, those numbers increased substantially to 251 yards per game with five total scores.
Given the trajectory of the offensive numbers, it's fair to project that we'll see the healthiest version of Burrow that we've seen in 2023.
Make Your 49ers vs. Bengals Pick at FanDuel
There are specific matchups in this game that favor the Bengals, one of them being their ability to limit the 49ers' pass rush. While undoubtedly somewhat a product of Burrow getting the ball out quickly, Cincinnati's offense has an adjusted sack rate of only 5.3%, which is the fifth-best mark in the league.
Adjusted sack rate is a metric that weighs opponents, down and distance, and even factors in intentional grounding. The 49ers' pass rush ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate.
Other metrics lead me to believe the 49ers' defensive unit may not be the elite defense that the narratives suggest. The 49ers are middle-of-the-pack in both adjusted completion percentage and first-read percentage. Teams aren't looking past their first read often enough in passing progressions for the 49ers pass rush to get home consistently.
The lethal combination of Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should produce substantial numbers.
The Cincinnati defense plays with two-high safeties at one of the lowest rates in the league (27%). The Browns are one of the only two teams in the league that plays with fewer two-high looks than the Bengals. Cleveland has better defensive personnel than Cincinnati, but the blueprint to slow San Francisco's offense has been put on film in back-to-back weeks.
A large part of the 49ers' offensive game plan involves misdirection and quick-hitting plays that get the ball into the hands of playmakers. Without the services of Deebo Samuel, the offense takes a major hit. Samuel averages an incredible 8.1 yards after catch per reception and this system is much more difficult to execute when the quarterback doesn't benefit from turning easy throws into first downs.
49ers vs. Bengals
Betting Picks & Predictions
As the astute Evan Abrams pointed out in his Week 8 betting primer, teams that have lost two consecutive games straight up, now playing on short rest, haven't fared well over the past couple of decades and only win 42% of the time.
I'm more than happy to take the points with a rested Bengals team and expect them to get a road victory on Sunday afternoon.
I'd play the Bengals down to +4. Be sure to use our live odds page to get the best number, which is Bengals +5 as of 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday night.
