The Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) will take on the Baltimore Ravens (6-3) on Thursday Night Football tonight to open NFL Week 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, and the game will be broadcast exclusively on Prime Video.
The Ravens are 6-point favorites over the Bengals (Ravens -6), and the game total is set at over/under 53 points scored, which is the highest total of the week. At bet365, the Ravens are -270 moneyline favorites to win, while Cincinnati is +220 to pull off a huge upset win on the road.
Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level with 20 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions this season, although Joe Burrow has 20 TDs and 4 INTs to his name. The first matchup between these teams ended as a 41-38 Ravens win in overtime, so more fireworks could be in store tonight.
Bengals vs Ravens Expert Picks
Tonight, we have a pick against the spread and on the over/under, as well as a player prop for both sides. With how Cincinnati matches up against the Ravens defense, this could be a thriller to open Week 10.
Let's get into our Bengals vs Ravens best bets and NFL predictions.
Bengals vs Ravens Predictions
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Bengals vs Ravens Pick Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
As an MMA analyst, I love a good rematch, and that’s what we’re getting between the Bengals and Ravens on Thursday Night Football.
The previous meeting was a 41-38 win for the Ravens in Cincinnati in Week 5, which makes the spread of Ravens -6 at most books about right considering home-field advantage is “worth” three points to the spread.
However, plenty has changed for both teams since then. The Bengals have leaned heavily into their pass-first offensive approach and now lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). That sets them up nicely against a Ravens defense that’s tough against the run (third in DVOA) but struggles against the pass (23rd).
It’s hard to cover six points if you can’t stop the opposing team, which is roughly how I see this one going. I also like the over in this one and could make a case for a Bengals and over parlay since Cincinnati’s defense isn’t good enough to cover in a low-scoring game.
Of the two, I prefer the spread thanks to the slightly off-market number on FanDuel. They’re at 6.5 with most books at 6.0, and that’s an important number to get an extra one-half point on. We could see some more movement if wide receiver Tee Higgins is ruled out for the Bengals, though. I’d switch to the over if he is unless we get another full point on the spread. Either way, wait for inactives on Thursday evening before betting it.
Pick: Bengals +6 (-110)
Bengals vs Ravens Over/Under Prediction
These teams have played in plenty of shootouts this season, but this number is very high for two familiar opponents on short week. In fact, this total is a full five points higher than in their first meeting.
When AFC North divisional foes have squared off on five or fewer days rest, the under has cashed at a 62.5% rate when looking at all data available in Action Labs.
The Bengals defense is showing signs of improvement. That unit has played considerably better since these teams' last meeting and held the Raiders to just 3.7 yards per play last week.
When Cincinnati attempted to slow down Lamar Jackson in Week 5, it blitzed at the highest rate against any opponent it has faced this season. Well, Jackson torched them for more than nine yards per attempt and two scores on the 40% of plays the Bengals defense sent extra defenders. I would be surprised if they approach this game with a game plan resembling the one that failed just a few weeks ago.
The Bengals offense will likely be without Tee Higgins once more on Thursday. Higgins has consistently been a major factor against Baltimore over the years and without him the last four weeks, Joe Burrow has only eclipsed 250 passing yards once since passing for a season high against the Ravens with Higgins in Week 5.
Too much is working against another potential shootout between these two squads and I'm willing to wager we see a couple of extra stops this time around, which is all we really need to avoid a 30-24 type game.
Pick: Under 53 (-110; Bet to 52.5)
Bengals vs Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer
After an absolutely horrible start to the season, Andrews has come back to life over the last five games.
Last week, Andrews didn't have a ton of volume, but the Ravens dominated the Broncos from start to finish and didn't need to pass the ball. The prior four games, though Andrews had one, one, two and two red-zone targets, which resulted in four touchdowns.
Helping cement Andrews' already strong role is that Isaiah Likely is going to miss this game, which will only give Andrews more run.
If this game is anything like the 41-38 matchup earlier this season, there are going to be a ton of touchdowns. We'll bet on Andrews to get one.
Pick: Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer (+225)
Bengals vs Ravens Player Prop Pick
By Matt Trebby
It’s rare that Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s projections like an under this big, but Ja’Marr Chase thrives in this matchup. As of Wednesday night, Koerner has Chase’s mean projection for receiving yards at 90, while Raybon has him pegged for 87.
Chase has played the Ravens seven times in his career, and he's averaging 6.7 receptions on 10.3 targets for 99.7 receiving yards per game against Baltimore. That’s even more impressive when you see that he had seven receptions for 43 yards between the Bengals’ two matchups with the Ravens last season. That is a testament to then-Ravens defensive coordinator and Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald containing Chase.
Well, it was back to business as usual this season back in Week 5, when Chase had 10 receptions on 12 targets for 193 yards and two touchdowns.
Tee Higgins is going to miss this game, so Baltimore will be focused on Chase. I don’t expect that to slow him down, though. This game has the highest total of the week and the Ravens defense ranks in the top five against the run and in the 20s against the pass. Chase is in store for double-digit targets and a big game.
I would bet this up to 85.5.
Pick: Ja'Marr Chase Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-129)
