Jaguars vs Bengals Prediction, Pick | Monday Night Football Odds

Monday, Dec. 4

8:15 p.m. ET

ESPN | ABC

Jaguars Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-10 -110	41 -110o / -110u	-500

Bengals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+10 -110	41 -110o / -110u	+375

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Jaguars vs. Bengals odds for Monday Night Football have Jacksonville installed as a 10-point favorite (9.5 at FanDuel) with an over/under of 40. My NFL pick leans toward the spread.

Everyone's out on Cincinnati without star quarterback Joe Burrow at the helm, but the Bengals (5-6) aren't out of the playoff picture just yet. On MNF, they'll look to snap a three-game losing streak and get back to .500. The Jaguars (8-3) have won two straight and are in first place in the AFC South. They can't take their foot off the gas, though, with the Colts and Texans both at 7-5.

Can the Jags improve upon their NFL-best 8-3 against-the-spread record against the Jake Browning-led Bengals? Find out in my Monday Night Football betting preview, which includes a Jaguars vs. Bengals prediction.

Lean: Jaguars -9.5 (-118)

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Jaguars vs. Bengals

Matchup Analysis

The Jaguars defense has quietly moved into fifth in DVOA, featuring the the No. 1 rush defense and the No. 8 pass defense.

The Bengals would probably like to establish their running game to take pressure off Jake Browning in his second start in place of Joe Burrow, but that's not realistic for a team averaging an NFL-low 75.8 yards per game.

Browning has completed 65.9% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and one interception on the season, though his numbers would look a lot worse if a couple of deflected passes had not landed in the hands of Ja'Marr Chase last week. The Washington product does get Tee Higgins back from injury — still, it's hard to trust Browning, who PFF charges with three turnover-worthy throws on just 41 attempts (5.3%).

Jaguars -9.5 (-118)

Bengals +9.5 (-104)

While the Jaguars defense has been on an ascent, the Bengals defense has been in a free fall. They dropped from 22nd in DVOA to 26th entering Week 13 after allowing the Steelers' first 400-yard game since the Trump administration.

Cincinnati is bleeding explosive plays, allowing 11.1% of rushes to go for 12 or more yards (32nd) and 15.4% of passes to go for 16 or more yards (31st). The Jaguars are 15th in explosive pass rate (12.7%) and 29th in explosive rush rate (5.0%), but Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne should be able to have their way. The Bengals also rank 30th in DVOA against tight ends, so Evan Engram may mess around and finally score his first touchdown of the year.

The only thing that could slow the Jags is the loss of left tackle Cam Robinson (IR; knee), who ranked 14th of 82 qualifiers in PFF pass-blocking grade (79.6). The Bengals' pass rush has been league average, ranking 16th in sack rate (7.2%) and eighth in pressure rate (21.9%), according to Pro Football Reference.

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Jaguars vs. Bengals

Betting Picks & Predictions

Primetime unders are 27-10 (73%) this season (not including Chiefs vs. Packers on Sunday Night Football), but we've tracked sharp action on the over. This under is a bit iffy because the Bengals defense tends to allow explosive plays.

The writing is on the wall for a Bengals team that is 10-14 ATS under Zac Taylor without Burrow. They were lucky to get as many passing yards as they did last week against the Steelers and also lucky to only give up 16 points — Diontae Johnson was ruled not to have completed the process of a catch on what should have been an easy touchdown and Jaylen Warren fumbled on the next play.

We've tracked seven sharp moves on the Jags at the time of writing on Sunday night, which has ballooned the spread up to -10 at most places. I think the Jags are the right side, but it's more of a lean because much of the value has been bet out of the number.

Lean: Jaguars -9.5 (-118)

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