The Cincinnati Bengals (4-6-0) and Los Angeles Chargers (6-3-0) will face off on NFL Week 11. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. Sunday Night Football will be broadcast live on NBC.
The Chargers are favored by -1.5 points, with the game total set at 48. The Chargers are -122 moneyline favorites, while the Bengals are +102 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Chargers vs Bengals predictions and NFL picks for SNF.
Bengals vs. Chargers Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 48 -108o / -112u | +102 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 48 -108o / -112u | -122 |
- Bengals vs. Chargers spread: Bengals +1.5 (-110), Chargers -1.5 (-110)
- Bengals vs. Chargers over/under: 48 (-108o / -112u)
- Bengals vs. Chargers moneyline: Bengals +102, Chargers -122)
- Bengals vs. Chargers best bet: Bengals +1.5
My Bengals vs. Chargers best bet is Bengals +1.5. For all of your bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
The Bengals are a bit underrated in the market (and have been underrated all year on the road, where they're 5-0 ATS), while the Chargers still have question marks due to an easy strength of schedule, so I'm rolling with Bengals +1.5.
Moneyline
No play. With a spread this short, I'd rather take the points as long as I can get them. The Bengals already have lost two games by a single point (26-25 at Kansas City in Week 2, 35-34 at Baltimore last week).
Over/Under
No play. Both offenses have the upper hand, but both are also capable of sustaining long drives, which could eat the clock and limit possessions.
My Pick: Bengals +1.5
Bengals vs. Chargers NFL Sunday Night Football Preview
The Chargers are a solid team across all three phases (12th in offensive DVOA, eighth on defense, 17th on special teams). They aren't going to beat themselves (NFL-low four turnovers). That means to beat them, you have to score.
The Chargers are 22-2 (.917) all time with Justin Herbert when their defense gives up less than 20 points — which they've done in all but one game this season — and 14-33 (.297) otherwise.
In this matchup, the Bengals figure to be part of the latter group.
Joe Burrow is coming off a two-week stretch in which he threw for 679 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception – without his starting left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins no less. Brown (knee) is listed as questionable while Higgins is off the injury report.
The Bengals are averaging 27 points per game (sixth) and already have five games of 30-plus points (third). The Chargers defense is allowing an NFL-low 13.1 points per game, but offense beats defense in the NFL, and the Chargers defense hasn't faced an offense like this. In fact, they've faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA.
The Chargers went 6-1 against a slate of opposing passers that include Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis, losing only to Fields (in a game they probably would have won if half of their starting offense didn’t get injured).
They even got the worst version of the best offenses they faced — the Chiefs with no receivers in Week 4, and the Cardinals with the Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection coming off a goose egg in Week 6 — yet lost both contests.
Burrow and the Bengals offense matches up well with Jesse Minter's scheme. Under Minter, the Chargers are playing zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (81.4%). Against zone, Burrow leads all qualified quarterbacks in completion rate (81.1%), passer rating (116.0) and Expected Points Added per Dropback (0.40), according to FTN.
Burrow’s numbers under pressure (7.7 YPA, 8 TD, 1 INT, 104.7 rating) are better than most quarterbacks from a clean pocket, which helps negate the Chargers defense's biggest strength in the Joey Bosa–Khalil Mack pass rushing duo, which has combined for 7.5 sacks. Despite the presence of those two, the Chargers struggle to consistently pressure the opposing quarterback, ranking 31st in pressure rate (17.1%).
The Bengals defense has had issues of its own, giving up 30 or more points in four games. But those came against Lamar Jackson (twice), Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts.
Though Justin Herbert has shown well as a runner and is playing extremely well in his own right in Year 1 of the Greg Roman offense, posting a career-best 8.7 YPA and 11:1 TD/INT ratio, some of the underlying metrics for the Chargers offense knock it down a peg.
On first and second down, the Chargers are 23rd in pass success rate (44.3%), 31st in rush success rate (31.7%) and 30th in overall success rate (38.0%), per rbsdm.com. Their conversion rates on third down (39.8%, 14th) and in the red zone (54.2%, 18th) are middling.
Though it has more to do with a supporting cast of offensive personnel around him that is solid but won’t blow anyone away, Herbert is also posting career-worst numbers in a few areas, including overall pass success rate (42.0%), QBR (59.5), and sack rate (8.2%).
Home-field advantage has been dwindling, but SoFi has never been a big edge for either of its tenants, and the Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road and are in a good spot coming in on 10 days' rest after losing to the Ravens last Thursday night.
According to our Action Labs data, Burrow is 13-5 (72%) ATS as road 'dog, covering by an average of 4.6 points per game.
On the road off of a loss, Burrow has led the Bengals to a 13-3 (81%) ATS mark, covering by 4.8 points per game.
My Pick: Bengals +1.5 (Bet to Pick'em)
Sunday Night Football Betting Trends
NFL Weather
