The NFL Week 6 Sunday slate concludes with Sunday Night Football and our Bengals vs. Giants picks tonight. SNF will kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
The Bengals (1-4) enter Week 6 in desperate need of a win after dropping a winnable game last week to the Ravens despite masterclass performances from Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. The Giants (2-3) are looking to win their second in a row behind a strong defensive unit.
As of 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, 90% of bets and 81% of the money was on the Bengals. The over was also getting 69% of bets and 62% of money. We have expert NFL predictions for both the spread and total, plus two player props.
Bengals vs. Giants Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
John LanFranca's Bengals vs Giants Prediction
The public is backing the Bengals, but I’ll gladly take the points with the much better defense.
The metrics are underrating the Giants defense, which entered Week 6 ranked 19th by DVOA. This unit may seem underwhelming, but digging a little deeper, it is clearly the best defense in the NFC East.
New York led the league in sack rate (14%) through five weeks, ranking ninth in pressure rate. The G-Men are one of two defenses that rank in the top six in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate.
The Giants defense has been the catalyst that has helped them outgain each of their last three opponents in total yardage (Cowboys, Seahawks and Browns).
This is another opportunity to fade a vulnerable Bengals defense. Cincinnati is 25th in adjusted line yards per rush, meaning its consistently losing the line of scrimmage.
More importantly, the Bengals have had trouble defending mobile quarterbacks. That matters greatly against Daniel Jones, who’s coming off a season high in rushing yards. Also, the Bengals are 31st in sack rate (3.9%).
Cincinnati can't stop the run or pressure the passer, so give me the points with the home team.
Pick: Giants +3.5 (-108)
Billy Ward's Over/Under Pick for Sunday Night Football
By Billy Ward
I’m riding with the line movement as the total in this game has moved from 45 at open to 47 at most books. You can still get 46.5 by paying a bit of extra juice, which I’m more than happy with.
The Bengals defense ranks 31st in PPG allowed this season at 29 per game. The Giants are without top receiver Malik Nabers, but that didn’t stop them from dropping 29 on a considerably better Seahawks defense.
We don’t need the Giants to do the bulk of the scoring here, either. Cincinnati’s offense is rolling through the air, with three straight 30-point games once it got its full complement of receivers back.
As long as the Giants can keep this close enough to force the Bengals to stay aggressive, we should have plenty of points. With the spread a fairly tight 3.5 points, that seems reasonably likely.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-120 | Play to -130)
Tee Higgins Player Props
Higgins' role since returning has been tremendous.
He has 30 targets in his three healthy games, good for a team-leading 25.9% target share. Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase (22.2%) have dominated usage in this stretch, with Zack Moss (13%) being the only other Bengal above a 10% target share.
Higgins and Chase have accounted for 61.4% of Cincinnati's first-read targets from Weeks 3-5, with Higgins leading the way at 34.3%.
The Bengals are slinging it this season, ranking sixth in pass rate and seventh in neutral pass rate heading into Week 6. It helps that their defense has been dreadful. Carolina is the only team allowing more points per game than Cincinnati.
The Giants have been effective on offense this season, which means this could turn into a shootout. I expect Higgins to be involved early and often.
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
SNF Anytime Touchdown Pick
By Nick Giffen
Cincinnati has struggled on defense this year — allowing the second-most points in the NFL — which should help the Giants move the ball. They'll need to do just that as the Bengals also have one of the top offenses in the league, so I expect the Giants to have to throw plenty to keep pace.
Fortunately for QB Daniel Jones, the Bengals don't generate a ton of pressure, which is an added bonus because Jones has massive pressure/no-pressure splits, struggling mightily under pressure but being serviceable with a clean pocket.
Enter Theo Johnson, who has a solid matchup against the Bengals. Cincy is tied for the most TDs allowed to TEs this year, and rank 19th in defensive DVOA against the position.
In addition, per Fantasy Points, the Bengals play Cover 3 around 36% of the time, a coverage Johnson has faced on only 26% of his routes this year, so we should expect him to face that coverage more than he has.
Johnson has 1.29 yards per route run against Cover 3, which is the most of any scheme he's faced this year thanks in part to a 13% target rate — the highest rate against any coverage where he's run more than 10 routes.
I have fair value on his anytime TD closer to +425.
Pick: Theo Johnson Anytime TD (+500 | Play to +425)
