The Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) face off in NFL Week 18 on Saturday night. Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on ABC/ESPN.
Bengals vs Steelers odds have the Bengals as -140 moneyline favorites and the Steelers as +118 underdogs. The over/under is 48.5 points (-110o / -110u). The Bengals are 2.5-point favorites on the spread over the Steelers.
Let's get into my Bengals vs Steelers prediction and pick, plus the latest betting trends, inactives, weather forecast and more.
Bengals vs Steelers Prediction
Against the Spread Pick
This is just a classic "Rah Rah Mike Tomlin" spot. Tomlin has thrived as an underdog for bettors, especially when his teams get points at home.
I'll bet on Pittsburgh to end Cincinnati's playoff hopes on Saturday night.
Moneyline
This spread may seem low enough that you might as well bet the moneyline if you like the underdog, but not so fast.
The Bengals have played so many close games this season that getting 1.5 points or more could be very important. I'd take the points with Pittsburgh as long as you can get +1.5 or more.
Over/Under
I'll pass on betting on this game's total.
Bengals vs Steelers Picks: Steelers +2.5 (Play to +1.5)
Bengals vs Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +118 |
- Bengals vs Steelers spread: Bengals -2.5 (-115), Steelers +2.5 (-105)
- Bengals vs Steelers over/under: 48.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Bengals vs Steelers moneyline: Bengals -140, Steelers +118
- Bengals vs Steelers best bet: Steelers +2.5
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Bengals vs Steelers Saturday Preview & Predictions
Books have consistently power rated the Bengals ahead of the Steelers all season, and now they're adding in the usual late-season must-win tax, making Cincinnati clear road favorites in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers did not look good the last two times we saw them in big national TV island games, but that was against the Ravens and Chiefs. The Bengals aren't at those teams' levels, particularly defensively.
Cincinnati's defense has bled points all season and is by far the worst unit on the field in this matchup. It's perhaps the perfect salvo for a struggling Pittsburgh offense that should finally have a healthy George Pickens at full speed. The Bengals offensive line should also have all sorts of trouble against Pittsburgh's outstanding pass rush.
Pittsburgh is playing at home with extra rest after that Christmas game. Cincinnati goes Saturday to Saturday on its usual rest but is coming off a long, grueling overtime game last week against the Broncos. Pittsburgh also has a significant advantage in both coaching and special teams.
The only real way to make Cincinnati a 2- or 2.5-point favorites — essentially four or five points better on a neutral field — is to heavily factor in motivation here. The Bengals need a win and serious help to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, and Pittsburgh will likely see its division title hopes disappear minutes before this game kicks off unless Baltimore loses as the biggest favorite of the season to the Browns.
Are you sure that means Pittsburgh won't be motivated to play and win here? A win still secures the AFC No. 5 seed and a game in Houston instead of Baltimore, a significantly better path for the Steelers, and a win also knocks a hated division rival out of the playoffs in Cincinnati.
A Pittsburgh win also changes the mood in the Steelers locker room after three straight relatively lifeless losses, all by 14 or more points, and gives this team a little momentum and belief heading into the postseason.
My model makes it closer to Pittsburgh -4 if we assume both teams are trying, so books are pricing almost a full touchdown of motivation in here. When have you ever seen a Mike Tomlin team roll over and not try?
Now, for the Tomlin trends.
From Week 5 forward, Tomlin as an underdog is 50-23-1, an awesome 68%, against the spread. That trend is better at home, in the division, off a loss by at least a touchdown and as a touchdown underdog or less — and this game checks all four boxes!
Tomlin is 24-11 against the spread (ATS) lifetime against the Bengals (69%) and his Steelers have owned Cincinnati, winning 15 of the last 19 meetings. He's also 14-7 ATS in Weeks 17 and 18 (67%), including a perfect 3-0 ATS in Week 18. Tomlin's teams close strong and fight hard all the way to the end.
This is a great spot to take the points and bet Pittsburgh +2.5. The Bengals have played two one-point games already and keep seeing games decided by two-point conversions, so those couple points matter enough to play +2.5 instead of the moneyline.
If you do play the moneyline, you should strongly consider parlaying it with a Raiders ML pick Sunday. A Steelers win locks the Chargers into the No. 6 seed and gives LA little incentive to play its starters, which would almost certainly move that line toward Las Vegas. The Raiders defense has quietly been better than the Chargers over the back half of the season anyway. A Steelers-Raiders ML parlay plays at +505 (ESPN BET).
Pick: Steelers +2.5 (Play to +1.5)
Bengals vs Steelers Betting Trends
- 65% of the bets and 75% of the money are on the Bengals moneyline
- 77% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the over
- 56% of the bets and 61% of the money are on the Bengals to cover the spread (-2.5)
Bengals Trends
- Bengals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Bengals are 7-1 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Bengals' last 5 games
Steelers Trends
- Steelers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Steelers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Steelers' 7 last games at home
Bengals vs Steelers Inactives
Bengals Inactives
- WR Charlie Jones
- RB Chase Brown
- DE Isaiah Thomas
- OT Andrew Steuber
- WR Jermaine Burton
- TE Tanner McLachlan
- DE Sam Hubbard
Steelers Inactives
- QB Kyle Allen (emergency 3rd QB)
- WR Scott Miller
- CB Donte Jackson
- DE Isaiahh Loudermilk
- DE Dean Lowry
