C.J. Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray Biggest NFL MVP Week 2 Movers

2024 NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud Calcify Top End

While the two best quarterbacks in the league — Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Bills quarterback Josh Allen — solidified their leads atop the NFL MVP odds board, it was Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, Saints quarterback Derek Carr and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray that moved the most when the dust settled on Tuesday.

Stroud wasn't excellent in a 19-13 win over the Bears on Sunday Night Football — giving up plenty of opportunities to put the game away and relying on his defense to pick up his slack — but the flashes of pure brilliance were enough to vault him on the odds board.

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It helps, too, that the Texans have a relatively soft schedule compared to their competitors, by virtue of a weak AFC South.

Meanwhile, it was two preseason long shots in Murray and Carr that vaulted up the leaderboard with electric follow-up performances to great Week 1s.

The Saints lead the NFL in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and Carr is the leader in EPA/play + CPOE (!), the single-best predictive measure to determine who will eventually be voted the MVP year-over-year.

Second on that list is Allen, who didn't have to do too much in a blowout victory over the Dolphins.

Murray is third on the list after dismantling the Rams with the help of wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who had his breakout game, putting up four catches, 130 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter of play on Sunday.

Jackson — alongside Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who may miss extended time after his fourth-recorded concussion in five years — fell the most on the odds board.

Jackson had been the sixth-best favorite for MVP before going 0-2 in a loss to the unheralded Raiders, a defeat that plummeted him to 10th in his battle to repeat as NFL MVP.

It stands to reason that Jackson might be out of the running in general now, barring an incredible 15 weeks. Yes, it's preemptive, but voters don't typically like repeat winners to begin with.

On top of that, teams usually need to finish with at least the No. 2 seed, something the Ravens may not be equipped to handle with a tough schedule the rest of the way.

In fact, here are the main criteria for selecting the NFL MVP (and a guide on how to bet this market), one developed by my colleague and data guru Brandon Anderson.

1. The winner is very, very likely to be a quarterback.
2. Voters love repeat winners, but not back-to-back.
3. MVPs put up great numbers but limit turnovers.
4. MVPs win a lot of games; they're usually No. 1 seeds in their conference.
5. Preseason long shots have been the norm of late.
6. EPA/play + CPOE is the best single MVP predictor.

With these metrics in mind, the race — as of Week 2, so it's early — looks to be a chase for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, barring injury.

The two downsides for Mahomes? How the advanced metrics have judged him so far — albeit, in an incredibly small sample size. Then, it's the turnovers he's generated.

But voters still do rely on the eye test, and his pedigree in clutch moments is something voters will prioritize, for better or worse. Mahomes is just No. 9 on the EPA/play + CPOE leaderboard on account of three picks so far, including another that was called back due to a questionable penalty.

But history says Mahomes can right the turnover ship. Still, only one MVP winner in the past 17 seasons — since rules were changed to enhance passing stats — have had 13 or more interceptions.

That's the one downfall for Allen, too. He's registered no picks so far this year under offensive coordinator Joe Brady's new(ish) scheme, which prioritizes running the ball, underneath throws and screens.

But Allen has thrown for 13 or more interceptions in each of his last three seasons. This season's MO could easily spell the end of that streak, however.

And while it's been a small sample size, Stroud isn't exactly an analytics darling, either. He ranks No. 11 in EPA/play + CPOE, but he has some soft defenses to exploit over a long season.

The problem for Burrow and Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers? Simple wins and losses. Both quarterbacks will have to elevate their teams to at least 11 or 12 more wins the rest of the way to solidify this award — especially the Bengals, who have started a season 0-2 yet again.