The Baltimore Ravens (11-5) open NFL Week 18 on Saturday at home against the Cleveland Browns (3-13). Kickoff at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. EST and will be broadcast live on ABC/ESPN.
Ravens vs. Browns odds have Baltimore installed as 20-point favorites over Cleveland for the largest spread of the NFL season. Bailey Zappe will become the fourth quarterback to start for the Browns this season, and he'll be opposite Lamar Jackson, who's putting up better numbers than he did last season when he won the MVP. The game total is set at 41 points, and the Ravens are -2400 on the moneyline with Cleveland at +1200.
Let's get into my Ravens vs. Browns predictions and NFL picks.
Ravens vs. Browns Prediction
Against the Spread Pick
I'm targeting the spread for Browns-Ravens on Saturday, specifically, the first-half spread.
The Browns will be without key players while the Ravens need to win to clinch the AFC North. There are also a number of betting trends that support backing Baltimore in the first half.
Over/Under Bet
I have no play on the game total but would lean toward the under.
My Pick: Ravens 1H -10.5
Ravens vs. Browns Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -105 | 41 -105o / -115u | -2400 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -115 | 41 -105o / -115u | +1200 |
- Ravens vs. Browns spread: Ravens -20.5 (-105)
- Ravens vs. Browns over/under: 41.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Ravens vs. Browns moneyline: Ravens -2400, Browns +1200
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Ravens vs. Browns Betting Preview
- 52% of bets and 56% of the money are on the Ravens to cover the spread.
- 83% of bets and 80% of the money are on the OVER.
- The Browns have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last 3 games.
Ravens vs. Browns NFL Picks
Obviously, I’d rather not take the half-point on a key number like 10, but this shouldn’t be a competitive game.
The Ravens play first on Saturday and are fully incentivized to play hard; if they win, the AFC North is theirs. If they lose, they leave their fate in the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This will be a full-effort game from the Ravens, who will want to host at least one playoff game.
So we know what we’re going to get from the Ravens. What about the Browns?
Jameis Winston is not going to get the start at quarterback. Fading him would be a little more worrisome because he actually has some upside and has put points on the board this season at times for the Browns. Instead, the Browns are rolling with a combination of Bailey Zappe and maybe some Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
TE David Njoku and RBs Jerome Ford (ankle) and Pierre Strong (concussion) are going to be out, as will CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) and LB Jerome Hicks on defense where they already have key pieces on IR.
Offensively, I simply don’t see a path for Cleveland to score points. The Browns won’t be able to run the ball, especially against this Baltimore defense that ranks No. 1 in the league in Rush Sucsess Rate.
Zappe is unlikely to have success against a Ravens pass defense that has improved dramatically over the past month, ranking No. 1 in EPA per Dropback since Week 14. The entire secondary is playing much better after making some key personnel changes on the back end.
And, obviously, you want to bet on Lamar Jackson and this prolific Ravens offense here. The best way to do that is in the first half with an offense that should hit plenty of explosive plays against a defense that allows far too many.
Jackson is the most profitable quarterback in NFL history against the first-half spread at 58-33-2 (63.7%) and covers by more than a field goal per game. He’s 50-27-2 as a favorite in the first half, covering by 3.5 points per game.
When Jackson is laying more than six points in the first half, he’s 12-2-1 against the spread.
This is an ugly situation for the Browns, who are hopeless. I don’t want to lay the full spread in case this does get out of hand and Baltimore takes its foot off the gas late in the game with a playoff game on the horizon, so I’ll simply bet on the Ravens to dominate before halftime.
My Pick: Ravens 1H -10.5
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