The Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos close NFL Week 13 on Monday Night Football. Kickoff at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Our Browns vs. Broncos picks and Monday Night Football best bets include predictions on the spread, over/under and Nick Chubb player prop.
The Broncos are -270 moneyline favorites and the Browns are +220 underdogs. The over/under is 42 total points. The Broncos are 6-point favorites on the spread.
Browns vs. Broncos Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Browns vs. Broncos Prediction
By Billy Ward
I don't love the spread for either team in this game.
The Broncos are clearly the better team, but they aren't especially explosive on offense. That makes it hard to trust them to cover big spreads.
On the other hand, Jameis Winston has started four games for the Browns. Those have included two upsets over much better teams, and two blowout losses in which Winston took nine sacks and threw three interceptions.
What I do love is off lines.
Most major sportsbooks have moved all the way up to -6 for the Broncos — but not FanDuel. They're hanging a -5.5 at the time of writing. That's a big deal considering that six is a key number
Get this one in ASAP since we might have an opportunity to middle this line if it continues to move.
Pick: Broncos -5.5 (-115)
Browns vs. Broncos Over/Under Pick
Given how well Bo Nix and the Broncos' offense has played of late, this total may seem too low at first glance.
However, it's important to add context to the rookie signal-callers' performance. The only top-10 defense (according to DVOA) Nix has excelled against is the Chiefs, and we have witnessed other Kansas City defensive struggles in recent weeks. Otherwise, Nix has faced pass defenses ranked 30th, 28th, 26th, 19th and 15th in pass defense DVOA.
I am not convinced the Broncos offense is one of the league's elite. They rank 20th in total offensive DVOA and 21st in yards per play.
Denver has these mediocre rankings despite playing the 26th-ranked schedule in terms of cumulative defensive DVOA. The 29 points the Broncos scored against the Raiders last week is a mirage — they averaged just five yards per play in that game, which is below their season average.
The Browns defense is first in the league in pass rush win rate and pressure rate at 43%. Nix's passer rating exceeds 100 when throwing from a clean pocket, but his rating drops to 55.9 when facing pressure.
I've yet to mention that the Broncos defense is the best in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Browns have played one game on the road with Jameis Winston at quarterback — they managed just 14 points.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-115); Bet to Under 42
Nick Chubb Player Prop
After initially getting eased into the offense, Nick Chubb's snap count reached 66% last week and he should be used even more going forward.
The Browns offense hasn't been bad with Jameis Winston at the helm, and they should be able to put up some points even in a tough matchup.
Chubb was used heavily in the red zone last week with eight carries and two touchdowns. He's looking more like the Chubb we've seen in the past and it's just a matter of time before he has a real breakout game.
I have Chubb at a 43% chance of finding the end zone, making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown (+165)
