The Cleveland Browns (3-9) and Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) will face off in NFL Week 14 at 1 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The game will be live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+ and YouTube TV.
The Steelers are favored by 7 points with the game total set at 43.5 points scored. The Steelers are -300 favorites to win outright, while the Browns are +240 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Browns vs. Steelers prediction and NFL picks.
The Browns lost 41-32 last week to the Broncos. Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he also threw 3 interceptions. The Steelers won 44-38 over the Bengals. Russell Wilson threw for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns as Pittsburgh registered more than 500 yards of offense.
Browns vs. Steelers Prediction
Against the Spread
I'm betting the Browns here. It's an ideal spot to bet Cleveland and fade Pittsburgh here as I lay out below.
My Pick: Browns +7 (-115); Bet to +6.5
Browns vs. Steelers Odds
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +240 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -300 |
- Browns vs. Steelers spread: Steelers -7
- Browns vs. Steelers over/under: 43.5 points scored
- Browns vs. Steelers moneyline: Steelers -310, Browns +250
- Browns vs. Steelers best bet: Browns +7 (-115)
MyBrowns vs. Steelers best bet is on Cleveland. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The market is in love with the Steelers.
They’ve won six of their last seven games and covered the spread in all six of those wins. They scored 44 points against the Bengals last week and are riding high atop the AFC North.
Historically, though, this is a letdown spot for Pittsburgh. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 29-49-1 (37%) against the spread (ATS) when favored by more than a field goal coming off a win.
I think this line is inflated because everybody saw Jameis Winston throw pick-sixes on Monday Night Football and remember how prolific the Steelers were last week. That’s what everyone is thinking about entering this week.
Also, this is when you want to bet on Winston — when he’s getting more than a field goal. As an underdog of three or more points, Winston is 21-11 (66%) ATS.
The Steelers defense is very good and will probably get Alex Highsmith back next week. Against that unit, I need a guy like Winston, who can be efficient even if he’s going to make some mistakes, which is going to happen against Pittsburgh.
Winston, for all his faults, is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt and 336 passing yards per game this season. He can put up points and keep up in a shootout-type game — like Pittsburgh played in last week against the Bengals.
When these teams played a couple of weeks ago in the snow, the Browns showed they can beat Pittsburgh. That game was also Winston’s least prolific of the season due to the conditions. He only attempted 27 passes, which is 14 fewer than his second-fewest in a start.
This game fits our NFL Luck Rankings threshold. The Steelers are the second-luckiest team in the NFL, while Cleveland is the fifth-most unlucky. The unlucky team with a difference like that is 128-75 (62.7%) ATS since 2018.
Divisional road underdogs against a home favorite that has covered four times in their last six games are 93-60-7 over the last two decades. There are a lot of trends pointing in Cleveland’s direction.
The good thing about this bet is that we don’t need the Browns to win. A backdoor cover is certainly in play with a quarterback like Winston, who can put up points until the game is over.
Browns +7 popped up on Thursday, which would be great to get. I’ll happily take Browns +6.5, though.
My Pick: Browns +7 (-115); Bet to +6.5
Steelers vs. Browns Betting Trends
