If you’re looking for an edge when it comes to NFL player prop bets, look no further than our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner’s projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs.
While the market on many of the available prop bets is close, there are a couple of value plays that stand out this week on the Kansas City Chiefs side of this AFC Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here and my favorite Bengals player props here.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
Chiefs NFL Props
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 37.5 Rush Yards (DraftKings)
In his first game action since Dec. 26, Clyde Edwards-Helaire thrived last week in limited work, rushing for 60 yards on just seven carries. He also added a catch out of the backfield for nine yards while playing just 30% of the offensive snaps.
While Jerrick McKinnon will also certainly have a role this week, Edwards-Helaire was substantially more efficient last week and should see an increased role in this AFC Championship Game. Last week, McKinnon averaged just 2.4 yards per rush on 10 carries and was more of a factor in the passing game, corralling five receptions for 54 yards.
Now that he’s been reacclimated into this offense following the shoulder injury, Edwards-Helaire should assume more of the early-down work, with McKinnon serving as more of a passing-down back. The matchup also won’t be very intimidating. Per PFF, the Bengals ranked 23rd with a 47.9 Run Defense grade during the regular season.
As 7- to 7.5-point favorites (check real-time NFL odds here), oddsmakers also anticipate the Chiefs leading in this one, which should lead to more rushing work for Edwards-Helaire based on game flow alone. Against an uninspiring Bengals rush defense, he should have no issues surpassing this rushing total for the second week in a row.
Koerner’s projections currently have Edwards-Helaire finishing with 43 yards, a sizeable 15% above this current total. I’ll be playing this rushing prop up to around 42 yards.
Demarcus Robinson Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
For most of the season, Demarcus Robinson has been an afterthought in this Chiefs offense. He finished the regular season with just 25 receptions for 264 yards and averaged just 2.4 targets per game. Outside of the Divisional Round playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers where he caught five passes for 76 yards (a season high), Robinson had not surpassed 46 receiving yards in any game this season.
In fact, he finished with less than 20 receiving yards on seven different occasions, including last week where he saw just one target — and recorded zero catches — in the Chiefs' 42-36 victory over the Buffalo Bills. On most occasions, he’s also only on the field for 50-60% of the Chiefs offensive plays, which along with his miniscule target share, severely limits his upside on any given Sunday.
With the emergence of Jerrick McKinnon as a viable dump-off threat to complement big-play options like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, there’s been little need for Patrick Mahomes to look Robinson’s way.
I’m firmly on the under on this one and would be comfortable playing it down to 16.5 yards if the line were to shift prior to kickoff.
Chris Jones to Record a Sack (FanDuel)
While there were many takeaways from last week’s Divisional Round game between the Bengals and Tennessee Titans, one thing became abundantly clear very quickly: Joe Burrow has become accustomed to taking a sack. Last week it wasn’t just one, but an NFL playoff-record nine sacks that were surrendered by his offensive line.
Don’t expect significant improvement this week on the road against this Chiefs defense. When these two teams met back in Week 17, Burrow was sacked four times, including two by defensive tackle Chris Jones. The rest of the regular season was no different. Burrow was sacked 62 times over the course of the year, the most among any quarterback in the league. The next closest? Ryan Tannehill with 48.
In a projected game script that implies the Bengals will be trailing, that means more drop backs — and sack opportunities — for this Chiefs defense. Jones led the Chiefs with nine sacks this season and should have plenty of chances to add to that total on Sunday.
At -112, this is as safe a bet as any that you can put down for this AFC Championship Game. I’d be comfortable playing this down to -120.
