The Dallas Cowboys look to keep the ball rolling on Sunday night as they welcome in the lowly Indianapolis Colts.
Dallas has won four of its last five, including a blowout of Minnesota and a Thanksgiving win over their division rival Giants. The Colts, meanwhile, have lost their last two and are just 1-2 under new head coach Jeff Saturday.
The Cowboys enter as 10.5-point favorites, but that doesn’t mean there’s no value to be had in the prop market! Here’s a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football.
Michael Gallup
Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-150) & an Anytime TD (+195)
It’s been a long journey, but Michael Gallup is finally settling into his role as the No. 2 receiver in Dallas.
After suffering an early-season injury and struggling to find his footing, Gallup has been targeted 25 times over the last four games. He’s broken the 35-yard mark each time, including a season-best 63 yards last week against the Giants.
Now back at full health, the Cowboys offense is finding its stride. Gallup is a perfect under-the-radar receiver to target in this matchup given Tony Pollard’s breakout season and Dallas’ recent success on the ground behind him and Ezekiel Elliott.
CeeDee Lamb will continue to be the most-targeted Cowboys receiver, but Gallup has seen his target share skyrocket. He’s the clear second-option in the passing game and should see upwards of seven targets on Sunday night, even as 10.5-point favorites.
Action Network projections have this closer to 46 yards, a near 5% edge from the current number. I’m going to ride the hot hand here with Gallup now carving a role into this Dallas offense at full health.
Gallup hasn’t scored since Week 1 of the NFL season despite the 6-foot-1 receiver being used in red zone packages. Dallas has had a lot of success on the ground which has led to a lack of passing touchdowns, but the Indy defense ranks eighth in rush defense, per PFF.
I expect the opportunities to be there for Gallup in a Dallas offense that has been moving the ball with efficiency and like taking a stab at him to score a touchdown on Sunday night.
Plus, even Sean Koerner also picked him at the tail end of ‘Convince Me!’ as part of our Power Hour show.
Jonathan Taylor
Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-160)
It’s time to ride the hot hand with Jonathan Taylor. After a slow start to the season, Taylor has turned on the jets under new head coach Jeff Saturday.
Over the last three weeks, Taylor has rushed the ball 20+ times and has finished above 80 yards in every game. He’s broken the 70-yard mark in each of the last four.
Since his dud against Tennessee in Week 4 — he would miss time with an injury after — Taylor returned and has averaged 5.01 yards per carry.
If Indianapolis wants to have a shot at upsetting Dallas, it starts with establishing the run game. The Colts passing offense has struggled and it plays perfectly into Dallas’ strengths. They are fifth in pass coverage and first in pass rush, per PFF, but sit all the way down at 27th in rush defense.
Action Network projections have this number closer to 80 yards, so there’s some wiggle room to his over here.
The Parlay (+500 at DraftKings)
- Michael Gallup Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-150)
- Michael Gallup Anytime TD (+195)
- Jonathan Taylor Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-160)
