The NFL Draft and the official 2021 schedule release are in the rearview mirror, meaning fans, oddsmakers and bettors have the information they need to look toward the upcoming season.
Most fanbases are cautiously optimistic that this will be their team's year, while bettors are projecting the league as a whole, trying to find the most valuable Super Bowl, conference and divisional futures, as well as win total over/unders.
Now that the full 2021 NFL schedule is out, we've updated our simulations to project the entire season and one team is popping as the most overrated when comparing our model's results to over/under win totals.
Without further ado, here is the most overrated (and overvalued) team heading into the 2021 NFL season.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have had a splashy offseason, headlined by a trade for former Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz.
With the emergence of Jalen Hurts, Wentz became expendable in Philadelphia, which combined with Philip Rivers' retirement made a deal between the two teams likely.
Indy also added former Kansas City left tackle Eric Fisher earlier this week to anchor the team's offensive line and protect Wentz's blindside.
According to the latest NFL odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, just seven teams have a higher win total over/under than the Colts' 10 wins (+110o/-134u), but our model sees Indy as vastly overvalued by the current market.
While the Colts' win total is juiced to -134 to fewer than 10 wins, our NFL model projects Indianapolis at just 8.4 wins this season.
So why exactly is our model less bullish on the new-look Colts than the betting market?
It's pretty simple: Our numbers don't agree with the boost given to Indy across the market following the acquisition of Wentz to run the offense this season.
