It was another heartbreaker week on our same-game parlay last week. Geno Smith needed 16 more passing yards and we would have taken home the big bucks. Instead, he fumbled the ball away in his own territory and smashed our hopes. We will continue to trust our process, though, and remember, hitting this once pays for several weeks of losses.
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBets’ $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
49ers vs. Colts Odds
Our Sunday night matchup this week is between the 49ers and Colts. These are both teams built to utilize the rushing attack on offense to then work the passing game from there. The reason they follow this style is because of the personnel they have been provided.
Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz have shown the ability to win, but their consistency forces them to the middle-of-the-pack among all starting quarterbacks. It does not help the passers that their receiving options have been far from intimidating. Each team has its one go-to receiver, Deebo Samuel for the 49ers and Michael Pittman for the Colts. However, after them, there is nothing impressive due to George Kittle and T.Y. Hilton's injuries.
Their lack of receiving depth will encourage the coaches to lean on their running games early. This will play into the Colts defense's hands as PFF grades them as the second-best run-stopping team. While the 49ers have not been that good against the run, they are still respectably graded 11th. Plus before its bye, we saw San Francisco hold the Cardinals rushing attack down, allowing Kyler Murray and the running backs under two yards per carry.
With that said, Indianapolis coach Frank Reich and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan are two excellent play-callers. They like to feel out the game with the run early, but after the half they turn up the aggression. Below is a quick comparison of the Colts and 49ers scoring by half.
| Team | 1st half | 2nd half |
| Colts | 8.8 | 14.3 |
| 49ers | 10.4 | 13 |
This is our anticipated game script: a first half focused on the run and feeling the game out, followed by a second half where both teams turn up the aggression and start putting up points. With this all in mind let's break down the bets I am stacking for the parlay.
The Parlay (+893)
- Pick your own Line Colts +7.5 (-180)
- Alternate Totals Over 36.5 (-320)
- Highest Scoring Half Second Half (+100)
- Deebo Samuel to get 50+ receiving yards (-180)
- Michael Pittman Jr. to get 50+ receiving yards (-125)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Colts vs. 49ers
Leg 1: Pick your own Line Colts +7.5 (-180)
The schemes of the 49ers and Colts offenses are not one that typically leads to blowouts. They both emphasize the run and play patiently to open the passing game. San Francisco’s absence of George Kittle also means its passing games will be limited more so than usual. Even when the 49ers earn a lead, they have struggled with turnovers, ranking third-worst in turnover differential at -5. Meanwhile, the Colts have been highly effective forcing turnovers as they rank third-best at +7.
This game has a ceiling on its offensive production and that typically means it favors the underdog. Rather than take the standard game +4, we grab +7.5 to prevent a touchdown game from causing us a cover.
Leg 2: Alternate Totals Over 36.5 (-320)
While I am doubting both these teams to produce well offensively, buying a low over seems to be the way to go. If the 49ers' issue with turnovers shows up early, the pace and scoring of this game could ramp up quickly. These defenses also struggle to cover on the outside which means broken big plays on the outside are more likely. With these extra ways to blow the game open an under is risky for my taste. Plus, as of this writing, 85% of the money is on the over at 42.5. We buy down and get a chance of a 20-17 finish to end with a win.
Leg 3: Highest Scoring Half Second Half (+100)
I feel the table above captured most of my explanation here. However, the obvious argument is these teams have been trailing in the second half and were forced to push the envelope. That is true, but that does not change that they were successful at it. Our game script calls for a close game heading into the second half. This means each team will either be looking to pull ahead or create a multi-possession lead. Both of those will mean not settling in an attempt to milk the clock.
Leg 4: Deebo Samuel to get 50+ receiving yards (-180)
The logic here is going to be the same in the write-up for Michael Pittman’s prop too. In all five games, Samuel has gained at least 50 yards receiving. With Brandon Aiyuk, on Kyle Shanahan’s naughty list, Samuel has been their only viable receiver. The big selling point here though has been the disappointing play of the Colts corners.
Whether it is Xavier Rhodes or Kenny Moore across from Samuel, it will not matter. Both Rhodes and Moore have graded in the bottom third of corners per PFF, while Samuel is seventh at receiver. I liked this prop at Samuel 75+ receiving yards but chose the conservative route. If you want to add even more to your odds you can take the higher line.
Leg 5: Michael Pittman Jr. to get 50+ receiving yards (-125)
Heading into last week, Pittman saw at least seven targets in four straight games and had at least 50 yards in each. Against the Texans though, a perfect storm of events would limit him. First, they had a big lead because they were playing the Texans, and Carson Wentz only threw the ball 20 times. Second, T.Y. Hilton had returned and stole the show with four catches for 80 yards. This week neither of those should be the case as San Francisco is a competent team and Hilton was ruled out.
Hilton’s absence will revert the receiving corps back to the Pittman show and what we saw the previous four weeks. We have seen number one receivers consistently hit the 50-yard number in recent weeks, and as the last man standing for the Colts, Pittman should too. Add into the mix that San Fran has PFF’s 105th ranked corner starting in Josh Norman and that spells trouble.
There you have it, a five-leg parlay with +893 odds. Hopefully, we get to celebrate a victory this time instead of saying we were right there again!
