The Action Labs Player Props tool uses projections from our experts to find edges for you in the betting game.
For Rams vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football this week, I took a look at the numbers and found three noteworthy lines that stood out against their betting lines.
Ashton Dulin
Under 13.5 Receiving Yards
Last week against the Titans, with the Colts playing most of the game from behind, Matt Ryan threw the ball 37 times. Five Indianapolis pass catchers saw more targets than Dulin’s three, which equaled Jonathan Taylor’s total.
Dulin was targeted 13 times in the first two games of the season but was thrown to just four times between Weeks 3 and 4, which he turned into three catches for 25 yards.
Harris Campbell and Alec Pierce are firmly ahead of Dulin on the depth chart and Ryan’s radar at this point, while Mo Alie-Cox and Kyle Granson are also seeing their fair share of work at tight end. Add in the likely increased impact of Nyheim Hines on the passing game this week, and there simply isn’t much work to go around in an offense that already isn’t thriving in the air.
Put all of that together, and Dulin’s under is Action Labs’ pick this week. He’s projected for 7.7 yards.
Courtland Sutton
Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
The Colts defense ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA, and it has only faced one elite aerial attack.
Here’s how Indianapolis’ defense has fared against opposing WR1, which with all due respect does not include anyone who would be considered one of the NFL’s elite:
Week 1, Brandin Cooks: 7/82/0, 12 targets
Week 2, Christian Kirk: 6/78/2, six targets
Week 3, JuJu Smith-Schuster: 5/89/0, eight targets
Week 4, Robert Woods: 4/30/1, four targets
It should be noted that the Titans were ahead most of that Week 4 game, which saw Derrick Henry finish with more rushing attempts than Ryan Tannehill had pass attempts.
So, opposing No. 1s have gone over this number in three of four games, and Sutton is the best receiver Indianapolis will have faced all season.
Sutton’s receiving yards totals this season have been 72, 122, 97 and 52, and he’s been targeted at least seven times in every game. Action Labs has him projected for 67.5 receiving yards.
