The Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos are two of the three lowest-scoring teams in the NFL as both average under 17 points per game. This should be another ugly Thursday Night Football game.
I’m expecting a certain game script from Denver tonight. I think the Broncos are going to lean on the passing game more than in the past and that may open up value on two players in the props market.
If you want to parlay the two together, or pair them with another TNF prop you like, check out PrizePicks. PrizePicks allows you to pair up and parlay NFL player props and wager real money in 30 states.
Melvin Gordon
Over/Under 14.5 Rush Attempts
Yes, Javonte Williams is hurt.
Yes, that opens up opportunities for Melvin Gordon, who is now the undisputed RB1 in Denver.
However, I’m still not buying it. This line is way too high.
First, the Broncos picked up Latavius Murray off the Saints' practice squad. I’m sure he’ll get a few carries, which could be enough to slash into Gordon’s attempts.
Also, Gordon is banged up and a risk to fumble. I don’t think Nathaniel Hackett wants to lean on him too much and it’s not like Hackett was leaning on the run game much before. Denver is about league average in rushing rate, but Williams only managed to exceed 14.5 rushing attempts twice – and he hit exactly 15 both times.
Plus, the Colts have one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. They are second in Rush Defense DVOA and top 10 in both Rush EPA per play allowed and Rush Success Rate allowed. Indy is a pass-funnel defense that will force Hackett to air it out.
Colts' run defense through 3 weeks:
– Allowing 2.6 yards per carry to running backs
– One rush allowed over 10 yards
– Grover Stewart leads DT's in run stops (8)
– Bobby Okereke (7th) and E.J Speed (1st) among PFF's top graded LBs in run defense pic.twitter.com/OFJzfZsnuT
— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) September 29, 2022
Our projections have Gordon finishing way short of 14.5 attempts. Action Labs Player Props tool mark him for 9.9 attempts.
Pick: Under 14.5 Rush Attempts
Jerry Jeudy
Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
With Hackett leaning less on Gordon and the ground game, where will he go with the offense?
Denver is going to air it out and Jerry Jeudy is going to get plenty of targets.
Jeudy has only cashed this number in two of his four games this season, but he was injured in Week 2 and then limited in Week 3. Otherwise, he’s been one of Wilson’s favorite targets. With Williams sidelined, only Courtland Sutton has more targets than Jeudy’s 21 – and Jeudy was injured for two games!
Jeudy actually had the same number of targets as Sutton in Week 1 (seven) and fell two short in Week 4. But Jeudy ran at least 30 routes in both games and was on the field for more than 90% of the snaps in each.
Frank Reich is going to run zone coverage and Jeudy is going to get all the targets underneath and in the middle. Also, Jeudy is really good at picking up yards after the catch as his 8.1 YAC/REC is fifth among receivers with at least 10 receptions.
I see two projection systems that have Jeudy flying over this mark, with Stokastic’s Player Props Tool marking him for 60.2 receiving yards and @JONPGH’s weekly projections with 61 yards.
I think Jeudy has a big week considering he’ll be the only option once Indianapolis shuts down Denver’s rushing game.
Pick: Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
