Thursday night is going to be an ugly one. On a quick turnaround, the Jonathan Taylor-less Indianapolis Colts head to Denver to take on Russell Wilson and the Broncos.
Though short favorites, the Broncos (-3.5) will also be without their star running back, Javonte Williams, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 4. Can Wilson and Matt Ryan correct their early-season struggles without reliable run games, or will this quick turnaround primetime event turn ugly?
Here’s a same-game parlay at FanDuel to help you get through Thursday’s island game.
Melvin Gordon
Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
One would think Williams’ season-ending injury would benefit Gordon’s usage, but I tend to believe he won’t be used as often as the line indicates.
Gordon has fumbled in every game this season and in five straight if you go back to last season. He averages just 3.8 yards per carry and hasn’t been as explosive as in years past. Our Action Labs projections have him at 10.8 attempts and 42 rushing yards.
Even after Williams left last week’s game, it wasn’t Gordon getting the extra touches as third-down back Mike Boone was used in the fourth quarter. Overall, Boone was in for 19 snaps and Gordon played 10.
Latavius Murray was recently signed from the Saints’ practice squad and there’s a possibility he plays on Thursday. Tack on Gordon’s neck injury, factor in his propensity for fumbling the ball and it’s likely the leash will be very short on the veteran running back.
Boone is a strong pass-catching back who should be used more often than Gordon on Thursday night. I’m looking to fade Gordon as his role slowly dissipates from the offense.
Matt Ryan
225+ Passing Yards (-135)
While Taylor’s injury is a big blow to the Colts’ offense, it will likely lead to a more pass-heavy approach. That benefits Ryan, who is completing 73% of his passes over the past two games. (Yes, he’s thrown five interceptions this season.)
The running back duties will fall on Nyheim Hines, Phillip Lindsay and Deon Jackson, though I don’t expect the Colts to ground and pound like they have in the first four weeks. If Hines plays the majority of snaps – which he should – that’ll likely translate to more drop backs and passing attempts for Indianapolis.
This 224.5 number is one Ryan has hit twice in four weeks. One of the unders came in the shutout loss to Jacksonville in which the Colts were without Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. The other was against Kansas City, where he threw for 222 yards.
With healthy receivers and Taylor sidelined, expect Ryan to air it out on Thursday night. This should be a close game throughout and the line – Broncos -3.5 – suggests a negative game script late for the Colts. We should see plenty of passes from the veteran quarterback.
Nyheim Hines
Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
This is a direct correlation to the Ryan over prop. While I expect Hines to play the majority of the snaps, he shouldn’t get much of the ground work. That’ll be saved for Lindsay and Jackson.
This number is a bit aggressive for Hines, who has rushed the ball eight times this season. Obviously, he was primarily a third-down back, but even in 2021 he would rarely see six rushes, and he went over this 39.5 number just once – in a game against the lowly Jets defense.
That won’t happen against this Denver defense. I would be shocked to see Hines carry the ball double-digit times. Our projections have Hines rushing for 31 yards on Thursday night, and I think even that might be a little too long.
Courtland Sutton
ATD (+145)
If there is one player Wilson has shown an affinity for over the first few weeks of the season, it’s been Sutton.
Sutton has racked up 343 yards on 24 receptions. While he only has one touchdown, he has four red zone targets, which is the second-most on the team. The first? Williams, who is now out for the year.
Even with Sutton being priority number one for the Colts, Wilson is going to look for his top receiver. Sutton has been targeted 35 times through four weeks, 13 more than the next-best receiver – again, Williams – and 14 more than fellow wide receiver Jerry Jeudy.
Targeted on nearly 27% of Wilson’s attempts, this number should be a lot closer to the EV, +120 range. Especially considering the unknown in the run game, the Broncos could even opt to pass more frequently.
That’ll only benefit Sutton.
Colts vs. Broncos Same-Game Parlay
- Gordon Under 55.5 Rushing Yards
- Ryan 225+ Passing Yards
- Hines Under 35.5 Rushing Yards
- Sutton ATD
Total: +1432
