Colts vs. Ravens Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Ravens 1H -4 |
| Lamar Jackson Over 227.5 Passing Yards |
Ravens 1H -4
Chris Raybon: I expect the Ravens to send Indianapolis back to reality after the Colts finally got their first win, but I make this line Ravens -7 with a total of 45.5, which is just about in line with the market. If you're like me and still want to invest in the Ravens, I recommend playing them on the first-half spread.
If they cover, walk away 1-0, but if they don't, you can then invest in them live full-game at a better number than the closing line.
It makes more sense to aim for the first-half cover because the Colts are a pass funnel, so if the Ravens go up early, they'll likely end up going with their usual run-heavy approach in the second half against what has been a strong run defense.
Going up early has been Lamar Jackson's forte, particularly when he's tasked with taking care of business as a favorite. According to our Action Labs data, Jackson has covered the first-half spread 78% of the time in his career, and done so by an average of over four points per game.
Jackson's first-half success is no fluke as John Harbaugh's teams have handled business as favorites in this spot dating back to the days of Joe Flacco. Overall, Harbaugh-coached teams have covered the first-half number as favorites at home two-thirds of the time in his career.
Harbaugh and the Ravens coaching staff should be able to not only get Jackson going early but also flummox Wentz from the onset, as Wentz has been the polar opposite of Jackson lately, failing to cover 10 of his last 11 first-half spreads dating back to last season. I would play this to -5. Read more about my pick in my full betting preview of this Monday Night Football matchup here.
Lamar Jackson Over 227.5 Passing Yards
Michael Arinze: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is transforming right before our eyes, and if you blink, you might miss it. Jackson has made tremendous strides in the passing game, and a glance at his advanced numbers supports this assertion.
You might be surprised to know that the Ravens have the highest explosive pass rate (14%) in the NFL. Not only does Jackson lead all quarterbacks with 11.6 intended air yards per attempt, but that number is almost three yards higher than his previous three seasons.
Baltimore's coaching staff has undoubtedly noticed the difference in his performance as the Ravens' pass play percentage is up from 44.96% last season to 51.53% this season. This subtle change has had a significant impact because the team still pounds defenses with their run game.
The Ravens are fourth in rushing with 164.5 yards per game. And while that's down from their league-leading 192.1 yards per game last season, they're ranked fourth with an average of 420 combined yards this season.
Last year, they finished 19th with 364 total yards per game.
Jackson is evolving in this offense, and the Ravens might have better success attacking this Colts defense through the air than on the ground. After all, Indianapolis is ranked 26th in Football Outsiders' Defensive Pass DVOA compared to fifth in Defensive Rush DVOA.
FanDuel has Jackson's yardage prop at 227.5 for Monday Night Football. He's gone over this number in all four games this season, whereas last season, he achieved that mark just three times during the regular season.
This number is too short, so I'd look to get involved sooner than later before the sportsbooks adjust. I'm comfortable playing this up to 230.
