NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Colts vs. Saints Prop Bets
Now let’s take a look at the top prop worth considering for the Monday Night Football contest between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints.
Saints QB Drew Brees
THE PICK: Under 310.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Normally, I wouldn't target an under on a Brees passing yards prop while the Saints are at the Superdome, but 310.5 yards seems somewhat aggressive. Granted, Brees has cleared 310 passing yards in four of his five starts at home this season, but three of those four games were absurdly high-scoring affairs against the 49ers, Panthers, Cardinals and Texans.
I have a hard time envisioning Brees having to keep throwing throughout tonight's matchup considering the Saints are 8.5-point favorites. The Colts offense has been average at best this season, ranking 16th in offensive DVOA and 20th in yards per play.
Additionally, these teams play at a relatively slow pace. The Colts rank 28th in neutral pace and 17th overall. Meanwhile, the Saints rank 22nd in neutral pace and 29th overall. They could slow down the pace even further if they jump out to a lead since they rank 30th in pace when they're leading by seven or more points, per Football Outsiders.
Where this bet can fail is if Indianapolis keeps this game competitive, or if Brees is able to hit Michael Thomas and some of their ancillary options for multiple big gains. The Colts have allowed a league-high 57% completion rate on passes 15-plus yards downfield, per Sports Info Solutions.
We currently have Brees projected for 294 passing yards, which gives a slight lean to the under.
I wouldn't bet this any worse than the current -115 odds being offered.
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