On paper, this game seems like it might be a struggle for points, a rookie quarterback facing a fading Matt Ryan.
So, with that theme in mind, the two edges that stood out to me tonight were on receiving unders. Using Sean Koerner's projections on Action Labs, here are Colts vs. Steelers player props to bet to close Week 12 in the NFL.
Michael Pittman
Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (PointsBet)
Pittman has gone under this total in four of his last five games, aside from a 75-yard performance last week against the Eagles.
This one isn’t betting against Pittman not getting looks in the Colts offense. He has at least nine targets in six of his 10 games, and his low is six.
The problem for Pittman this season is that after averaging 12.4 yards per reception in his first two NFL seasons, that number is down to 10.1 in 2022.
That means Pittman could have five or six catches and still go under this total. In fact, of those four unders in his last five games, he had six or more catches three times.
Pittsburgh ranks 18th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass and 20th against opposing No. 1 receivers. Most of this season has been played without T.J. Watt, though, who has significantly made the Steelers defense better throughout his career.
Action Labs indicates a noteworthy edge on this prop, projecting Pittman for just 59.3 receiving yards. PointsBet has this at 70.5 (-120), but BetMGM has 69.5 at -115.
Gunner Olszewski
Under 11.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
This one is fun.
Olszewski is at 11.5 receiving yards across the board, but FanDuel is at -110. He’s projected for just 4.8 receiving yards in this game by Action Labs.
Since Chase Claypool left Pittsburgh, the Steelers’ No. 3 receiver role (the slot) has been filled by Olszewski and Steven Sims. Both were north of 40% of snaps last week in a shootout loss to the Bengals that saw 67 total points scored, but the week before, Olszewski was at 26% to Sims’ 38%.
Olszewski did haul in two catches for 39 yards last week on three targets, but he had one catch on one target for four yards entering that game. Sims has seen at least two targets in each of his last three games.
Here’s what we’re rooting for by betting Olszewski’s under: This will be a lower-scoring game that won’t require the Steelers to run as many plays as they did last week, and the passing attack will go through the top trio of Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. Even Najee Harris has at least three catches in three of his last four games.
The projection clearly says this is a bet to make. It’s not the sexiest pick, but it’s the biggest edge on the board tonight.
Pick: Gunner Olszewski Under 11.5 Receiving Yards |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
