NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Colts vs. Texans Prop Bets & Picks
Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.
- Texans QB Deshaun Watson's rushing yards
- Colts QB Jacoby Brissett's passing yards
- Colts RB Jonathan Williams' rushing yards
Colts RB Jonathan Williams
THE PICK: Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The Colts will be without star running back Marlon Mack, which opens up plenty of opportunities for the other RBs on the roster. Williams and Nyheim Hines spilt the workload after Mack left the game in Week 11, but Williams was the preferred option for the ground game. He tallied 13 carries compared to just three for Hines, and he turned those carries into 116 yards.
The backfield will be a little more crowded this week with Jordan Wilkins returning from injury, but it seems unlikely that Williams will just disappear after dominating in relief last week. We currently have him projected for 58 rushing yards, which makes this one of the biggest smash bets of the entire NFL season.
This prop is graded very highly in our tool, so I'm looking to take advantage. I would play the over up to -180. And if you’re looking for other ways to leverage this mistake in the market, you can also take a look at the under on Jordan Wilkins' rushing yards.
Texans QB Deshaun Watson
THE PICK: Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Watson is coming off his worst performance of the season, but that can be excused against a tough Ravens’ defense. He should have an easier go against the Colts, who rank just 13th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA.
I'm looking for a bounce back in rushing yards in particular. He totaled just three carries for 12 yards vs. the Ravens, which was his worst performance on the ground since Week 4. He had totaled at least 32 rushing yards in five straight games prior to that performance.
This is a nice opportunity to buy low on Watson, who has been aggressive as a runner for most of the season. I like the over up to -125.
Colts QB Jacoby Brissett
THE PICK: Under 235.5 Passing Yards (+105)
Brissett has performed admirably this season, but he isn't exactly a guy who you want to throw the ball 50 times a game. He's more of a game manager than a gunslinger, and that’s reflected in his game logs. He’s finished eight games this season, and he’s thrown for 202 yards or fewer in five of them.
With that in mind, this line seems underpriced at +105. I would play the under up to -110.
