Colts vs. Vikings Odds
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Two teams with postseason aspirations that lost in Week 1 as favorites will meet in an important Week 2 showdown as each look to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start.
Let's take a closer look at Sunday's matchup in Indianapolis.
Indianapolis Colts
Everybody is in panic mode in Indianapolis after the Colts dropped their opener against the lowly Jaguars. But dig a little deeper, and you'll see the Colts dominated that game. They out-gained Jacksonville by over 200 total yards, including 207 more passing yards, and finished with a 1.3-yards-per-play edge. It was an unlucky loss. That will happen when you lose the turnover battle 2-0 on the road in a division game.
My opinion hasn't really changed on the Colts — a team I projected to win 9.0 games. Philip Rivers looked serviceable enough, especially in his first game of a new offense.
Minnesota Vikings
In contrast, my opinion on the Vikings has changed significantly after last week. One of the trickiest parts about Week 2 is not overreacting to what happened while also properly adjusting power ratings for teams that may be much worse or better than projected. It's much more art than science with a one-game sample size.
Well, I took a stand and downgraded Minnesota significantly after what I saw against Green Bay. I came into the season on the fence about the Vikings, who I could envision having a disastrous season
Yes, the Vikings averaged a Week 1 best 8.1 yards per play, but they played from behind most of the game and accumulated plenty of garbage-time stats. On the defensive side, Minnesota looked horrendous, and I don't see any quick remedies.
After Everson Griffen's departure and Michael Pierce's opt-out, the defensive line looked very thin. Then, the outlook became even bleaker even when Danielle Hunter went on IR. Newly-acquired Yannick Ngakoue should eventually help, but he's still dealing with an injury and not fully up to speed with Mike Zimmer's complex defense.
This is just a bad defensive front at the moment.
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Colts-Vikings Pick
The Colts, who boast one of the league's most dominant offensive lines, should completely control the line of scrimmage. They shouldn't have any issues moving the ball on the ground, and Rivers should have plenty of time to find open receivers in Indy's heavy 11 personnel offense against a subpar group of Minnesota cornerbacks. In Week 1, third-round draft pick Cameron Dantzler actually took the most snaps at cornerback. Holton Hill was abysmal in coverage, and Mike Hughes still doesn't look ready to take that next step. It's also a group of corners that don't possess elite speed, which could be problematic against Indy's speedy wideouts.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota really only has one bonafide threat at receiver in Adam Thielen. On paper, he might have a big edge on Xavier Rhodes, who I believe is way past his prime.
However, Rhodes, who had a horrid game against Jacksonville, might have a better shot at finding success this week. He practiced against Thielen for seven years and knows all of his tendencies. It works both ways, but I tend to give the edge to the cornerback in this scenario. I'm sure the Colts will run a lot of zone looks and offer help to Rhodes as well.
With the offseason acquisition of DeForest Buckner and a healthy Darius Leonard in the middle of the 4-3 base defense, the Colts' front seven also should have the advantage at the point of attack against a below-average Minnesota offensive line.
Give me the Colts at home this week at a field goal or less against a Vikings squad I may fade frequently over the first half of the season. I know Zimmer has been money after a straight-up loss in the past with a 17-6 record against the spread, but he just doesn't have his typical high-performing defense at the moment.
In regards to the total, it has ticked up since the open, which I think has created a bit of value on the under based on how I think the game will play out. It's tough to pull the trigger with two questionable secondaries, but both teams feature run-first offenses that don't play fast.
Remember, Rivers is the king of running the game clock all the way down before snapping it. Also, you could see both clubs play conservatively with a potential devastating 0-2 start on the horizon.
PICKS: Colts -3; Under 49
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