Week 5's Thursday Night Football was a touchdown-free affair that produced only 21 total points despite going to overtime. Week 6 Thursday Night Football brought us Commanders vs. Bears — and more opportunities for some NFL live betting.
There wasn't much to get excited about here from a viewing standpoint, as the first half proved, but there were still some potential live betting spots coming into the game that we've been able to capitalize on. And perhaps unsurprising, I had a particular interest in any scenario that allowed me to bet the under at an improved line — for obvious reasons.
As always, take a long look around various books before placing live bets. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
So with that in mind, here is how we live bet Bears vs. Commanders on Thursday Night Football.
The Live Bet We Made on Thursday Night Football
The Commanders Take the Lead — Or a Close Game: BET MADE
From a pace of play standpoint, this game was going to provide clear value regardless of the situation, playing significantly faster or slower depending on the scoreboard.
However, the struggles of these offenses made taking overs an uncomfortable proposition, regardless of the implied paste. Therefore, my favorite scenarios to live bet here were with Washington in front, followed by a close game.
Both of those situations yielded a game that would play much slower than average. Additionally, a Commanders lead would force Chicago — the league's 30th ranked passing offense by DVOA — to throw the ball.
A close game would also play slow, though it doesn't impose upon either team the need to throw the ball. Because of that, I planned on being far pickier on the line we're betting in a close game than with the Commanders leading.
And, well, we got there. With both teams acting like toddlers playing “the end zone is lava” in the first half, betting the live under of 22.5 shortly before halftime was the right move here. At that number, books were telling us they anticipated 19 more points in the second half. That was exactly half of the 38 pregame total. Had we really not seen enough to this point to update our priors from before the game?
Washington also started with the ball in the second half, which supported our pregame thesis of taking the under with Washington in the front.
And remember — we're not alone in making live bets on the biggest NFL games in primetime. Every Thursday and Monday night, join my predictive analytics colleague Nick Giffen at halftime for "Bet What Happens Live With Dr. Nick!", where he'll offer a glimpse into his models and the live bets he's making.
Just like us, Dr. Nick has seen enough, both on the field and in his models, to bet the live under. At halftime, that number was 21.5 (-110 at FanDuel), which Dr. Nick still evaluated as a worthwhile bet.
The Other Live Betting Scenario We Were Watching For
The Bears Take the Lead
This one was a scary thought. The pace model painted a pretty clear picture here: This game would play faster with the Bears out in front. It also put both offenses on the right side of their respective "strengths." The Bears are better running the ball, while Washington is better through the air.
With that said, it still might not have been worth betting the over if the game went this direction. We had a similar situation last week, where the math suggested an over was the sharper pick. That game finished with 21 total points.
Because of the risk involved, we would have needed to have been extremely picky before betting the over. One of the things to look out for was how well the offenses are moving the ball. Sometimes, teams are making good progress but a few bad breaks keeps points off the board.
And sometimes, you get a game like Thursday night.
