It’s another ugly Thursday Night Football matchup as the Chicago Bears welcome the lowly Washington Commanders on a short week.
Tension is building in the Washington camp where head coach Ron Rivera has publicly called out Carson Wentz as the reason behind the team’s 1-4 start. The Commanders fell just short of a win last week after Wentz’s pick on the one-yard line in the final seconds.
Chicago, meanwhile, is undefeated at home but enter Thursday losers of two straight. David Montgomery has returned to the backfield providing an extra boost to Justin Fields and co.
The spread for this matchup is set at a PK with the total coming in at 38 points. Here’s a same-game parlay to get you through the night!
As a friendly reminder, I normally bet most of these props straight with a sprinkle on the parlay.
Commanders -1 | Bears +1
Brian Robinson Jr.
Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
Despite the Chicago Bears’ horrid rush defense, this number is too high for Brian Robinson Jr., who is still being eased back into action.
Robinson ran the ball nine times for 22 in his season debut and played just 18 total snaps. He is stuck in a crowded backfield alongside J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson who played 26 and 20 snaps.
FanDuel Quickslip: Brian Robinson Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
Long term, Robinson is the play. On a short week where he already has to compete for snaps, though, I’m not sure he will be handed close to a full workload.
Robinson is strictly used for ground work and is all but eliminated from the equation in passing situations. It’s an ugly bet to fade a running back against the Bears defense, but unless Robinson breaks free for a huge gain, I don’t see him coming close to this number.
Terry McLaurin
Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
In an injury-riddled offense, Terry McLaurin has provided a steady hand.
Through five games McLaurin has 19 receptions for 326 yards and has gone over this 54.5 number in four of five games. He has been a deep threat for Carson Wentz, catching a reception of 34 or more yards in four games this season.
Bet at FanDuel: Terry McLaurin Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
From our Action Network’s own contributor Prop Bet Guy, McLaurin is seeing roughly 32% of Wentz’s air yards. Now, he faces a Bears defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against deep passes.
Logan Thomas and Jahan Dotson are out for Washington, leaving Wentz with Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown. There aren’t many options — McKissic will likely be leaned on for check downs — so McLaurin should see plenty of usage once again.
Even with such a low-scoring total, I think this number is too low on the Commanders’ best receiver.
Curtis Samuel
ATD (+250)
The last leg to this paraly is a long shot to juice the odds.
Curtis Samuel had a blazing start to the season with 15 receptions, 133 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also ran the ball five times for 38 yards, too.
Washington's Swiss Army Knife plays the second-most snaps on the team behind McLaurin and is the most targeted Commanders receiver inside the 20-yard line aside from Jahan Dotson, who is out.
Thomas’ injury also provides a boost to Samuel, who is touchdown-less since Week 2. He has been targeted an average of nine times per game and has quickly established himself as a go-to option for Wentz.
Rather than taking a dart throw on one of the Commanders running backs — we have no idea how the snaps will play out inside the 20 — I’m trusting Samuel here. His versatility also opens the door for a touchdown on the ground or through the air, and his speed is just an explosive play waiting to happen.
And yes, I want nothing to do with this Bears offense in this same-game parlay. Justin Fields cannot be trusted to spread the wealth. All Commanders here!
Bet Curtis Samuel ATD at FanDuel
