Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Commanders vs. Bengals parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Commanders vs. Bengals parlay built on DraftKings.
Commanders vs. Bengals Parlay for Monday Night Football
- Over 46.5 (-112)
- Brian Robinson Jr. Rushing + Receiving Yards Over 68.5 (-115)
- Ja'Marr Chase Under 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (+230)
Full Commanders vs. Bengals Parlay Odds: +1600 | $10 Bet Wins $160
Over 46.5 (-112)
We should finally get the Bengals offense at full strength for the first time this season, with Tee Higgins making his season debut on Monday night. Between Higgins' absence and the "hold in" and illness that impacted Ja'Marr Chase, it was a tough scene in the Bengals receiver room early in the season.
Despite that, they managed to put up 20 points in Week 2 against last year's number one scoring defense in the Chiefs. The Commanders are not that.
They ranked 32nd in DVOA against the pass in 2023, a ranking they've maintained through the first two games of 2024. That's good news for the Bengals, who are at their best attacking through the air.
On the other side, early returns on rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels are promising. He has a 75% completion rate and a slightly above-average 7.7 YPA through two weeks, and so far has been the best rookie quarterback in the league.
What he hasn't done is throw a touchdown pass — but it's coming. This one could turn into a shootout, given the way these teams match up.
Brian Robinson Jr. Rushing + Receiving Yards Over 68.5 (-115)
The expectation coming into the season was that Robinson would be in a timeshare with offseason addition Austin Ekeler, with the latter handling the bulk of the 3rd down work.
That hasn't been the case so far, with both backs seeing seven targets each through two games and Robinson out-carrying Ekeler 29-10. Our Props Tool has both his rushing and receiving overs as values, so by playing the combined prop, we can cover a few more bases.
Ja'Marr Chase Under 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Chase has yet to clear this number so far this season, with totals of 35 and 62 yards through his first two games.
On the one hand, it's reasonable to expect more production from him this week, given the matchup. On the other, he also has more target competition with the return of Higgins and the emergence of Andrei Iosivas as a viable third option.
Chase has had just a 15.5% target share through the first two weeks with Higgins on the sidelines, so it's hard to see a huge uptick with another option on the other side.
More importantly for the parlay, taking an under on a star player when we have the over on the total gives us solid overall odds, bringing the parlay to +550.
This will be my first "stopping point" before I add one more leg for a bigger swing.
Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown (+230)
As I mentioned above, Daniels is eventually going to throw a touchdown pass. The likeliest person to receive it is his WR1, Terry McLaurin.
McLaurin leads the Commanders in targets, receptions and snap share among pass catchers. He's clearly the #1 option in the passing attack, plus he has the YAC ability to make something happen on his own.
If we're going to get to the over, we probably need a passing touchdown at some point from the Commanders, so this one correlates nicely with the parlay.
Adding this pick in brings the total odds to +1600.
Full Commanders vs. Bengals Parlay Odds: +1600 | $10 Bet Wins $160
