Prop lines for Monday Night Football's Commanders vs. Eagles matchup are pretty sharp, which leaves us looking toward the bottom of the depth chart for edges.
Fortunately, we have a clear one on a … backup tight end.
Action Labs uses Sean Koerner's expert projections to find advantages in the player-prop market for bettors. Let's break down the bet to make for Monday Night Football.
John Bates
Under 8.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
Logan Thomas has played more than 60% of snaps in five games this season. He has at least three targets in each of those games.
In those five games combined, Bates has gone under this receiving yardstotal three times. One of the overs saw Thomas leave the game early in Week 4, which led to more targets late in a loss to the Cowboys for Bates.
Really, what we’re looking at here is a backup tight end who’s averaging 7.6 receiving yards per game. Even if he gets one reception, chances are Bates isn’t going over this total. In fact, Action Labs projects Bates to get one catch in this game but still go under his yardage total.
Another thing working against Bates is that the Commanders are about to get another receiving weapon back in the form of rookie WR Jahan Dotson. Bates played more than 32% of snaps in two of the four games Dotson has played this season.
I know, it’s not the sexiest pick, but Bates has had multiple catches in just one of the six games this season that Thomas has started. There’s a clear edge here, with Action Labs projecting Bates for just 5.7 receiving yards.
