The Philadelphia Eagles will look to defend their undefeated record on Primetime this week, hosting the last-place WashingtonCommanders.
Hopefully, the Commanders will play themselves out of the basement with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Anyone is better than Carson Wentz.
With a double-digit spread and low total, finding value in a side or total on this game is challenging. However, there’s always value in the player props market.
We can take advantage of these player props by using PrizePicks, which allows us to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states – including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here’s my PrizePicks card for Monday Night Football.
Terry McLaurin
Over/under 52.5 receiving yards
Philadelphia boasts a phenomenal pass defense. The Eagles are third in pass defense DVOA and first in pass EPA per play allowed. In addition, the front seven has produced the NFL’s fifth-highest pressure rate while the cornerback duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry are shut down in man-to-man coverage.
So, why are we backing Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin?
Because McLaurin has cashed more than 47.5 receiving yards in seven of his nine games this season, averaging more than 67.5 yards per game. Plus, his usage has increased in recent weeks, and he’s played at least 95% of possible offensive stats in six straight weeks while becoming the Commanders’ WR1 by targets.
Image credit: @JonPGH
In the past three weeks, McLaurin has picked up 16 receptions on 25 targets for 242 yards. Heinicke loves throwing it to Scary Terry.
Moreover, McLaurin had a huge game against Philadelphia in Week 3, picking up six receptions on nine targets for more than 100 receiving yards.
How could that be? Especially considering the Eagles are second in pass defense DVOA against No. 1 WRs?
Maybe because the Commanders fell behind 24-0 in the second quarter and were looking to play catchup. Carson Wentz dropped back 37 times in the second half of that game, finding McLaurin seven times.
That’s a trend with the Eagles this season. They’ve been so dominant that opposing teams are forced to throw more often to keep up. As such, the Eagles have allowed the fifth most pass attempts per game in the NFL this year (36.4).
Given the Commanders are 11-point road underdogs, I don’t see why this game would play out differently.
I’m expecting a big game from McLaurin on Monday Night Football, even if only in the box score.
Pick: Over 52.5 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts
Over/under 39.5 rush yards
Washington has a good rush defense. The Commanders are second in rush defense DVOA and rush EPA per play allowed while allowing the second-fewest first-down rushes in the NFL.
However, all that good is offset by a horrendous secondary.
The Commanders rank 25th in pass defense DVOA and 17th in pass EPA per play allowed. Washington’s cornerbacks have allowed 16 touchdown passes to just three interceptions on the season while being susceptible to big plays, ranking second-to-last in aDOT allowed (9.2).
Nick Sirianni is an analytically friendly coach and should know this. So, I’d expect Jalen Hurts to unload on the Commanders' defensive backs today without much resistance.
I don’t see many rushing attempts for Hurts in this game, whether on designed runs or scrambles, since he is good enough to carve up Washington’s defense without forcing anything against a top-tier front seven.
So, his rushing yards total seems too high. Hurts threw the ball 35 times against Washington in Week 3, piling up a season-high 340 passing yards while rushing for just 20 yards. Plus, Hurts has eclipsed 40 rushing yards only once in his last six games.
Why should this week be any different?
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Hurts for just 37 rushing yards on Monday Night Football, giving us a significant enough edge to take this prop on PrizePicks.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hurts manage fewer than 20 rushing yards in this matchup.
Pick: Under 39.5 rush yards
