The surging Washington Commanders and No. 1-seed Detroit Lions face off on Saturday, Jan. 18, at Ford Field in the second game of the NFL Divisional Round on Saturday night. The game is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on FOX.
Beyond NFL spreads and total bets, I'm looking at Commanders vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorers — and there's one in particular that catches my eye for this NFC clash.
Commanders vs. Lions Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Zach ErtzAnytime Touchdown (+300; BetMGM)
Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+300)
The Jayden Daniels era has been fantastic, but this isn’t an ideal matchup for the Commanders defense.
Washington’s run defense is likely going to be a liability in this one; Detroit’s two-headed monster in RB Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery typically lead the way for the Lions, which allows QB Jared Goff to have more time in the pocket to complete critical passes and move the chains.
Basically, this game is going to come down to third-down conversions and whether each team can sustain long drives. While both teams ranked in the top six in third-down conversion rate, the Lions are better equipped on defense to stall the Commanders' drives, and Detroit ranked first in opponent third-down conversion rate.
As for the Commanders, they were tested by the Bucs, who ranked top-five in blitz rate and pressure rate — but the Lions are a different animal, especially since they play such aggressive man coverage in the secondary.
Naturally, the two Commanders pass-catchers who've had the most TD success against man defenses are WR Terry McLaurin (+140) and TE Zach Ertz (+300).
Scary Terry had seven TDs vs. man coverage this season and is the certified deep threat for the Commanders, but at +140, it’s hard to feel great betting on him. Still, it's worth noting the Lions defense was 31st in the NFL in surrendered 20+ yard completions and also gave up the fourth-most completions of 40+ yards.
Ertz led the team with 21 red-zone targets this season and will likely see more volume when the Commanders get to the red-zone.
No Recommended Lions Bets
If you’re betting on a Lions player to score, you have to know going in that you’re likely betting it below fair value.
Lions TD odds have been steamed for most of the season though there were moments when you could occasionally find value on WR2 Jameson Williams or TE Sam LaPorta, but both now have +140 odds or worse against the Commanders.
Basically, the Lions are priced like five different guys will score. For that reason, I can’t recommend a Lions TD scorer.
