Championship Sunday has arrived! After a thrilling 2021 season, we are left with the third installment of the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Los Angeles Rams — this time for the NFC Championship.
Los Angeles' offense has been flying high in the playoffs, posting consecutive 30+ point totals against Arizona and Tampa Bay. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has silenced his critics with six touchdowns and no interceptions over those two contests.
With these two teams having faced each other twice during the regular season, I expect some changes in the offense to open the door for prop bet value.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here and my player prop picks for the 49ers here.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Player Props: Rams
Odell Beckham Jr. Over 52.5 Rec Yards (-115) at BetMGM
I love Odell Beckham Jr. in this spot.
Cooper Kupp is coming off an incredible season, not to mention a historic performance with 183 receiving yards in the Rams' win over Tampa Bay. Lost in that stat line were Beckham's six receptions for 69 receiving yards. Beckham did most of his damage in the first half, when Los Angeles jumped out to a 20-3 halftime lead.
Beckham has seen his role grow since joining the Rams and reached a season-high 91.4% snap share against the Buccaneers. With seven or more targets in three of the past five games, Beckham is locked in as Stafford's second option in the Rams passing attack.
San Francisco's run defense is stout, ranking second-best in run defense DVOA. Los Angeles will need to attack the 49ers through the air, which provides Beckham every opportunity to beat this low total.
With his speed and explosiveness, Beckham can beat this prop with just one reception. I'll back the veteran wideout against San Francisco, with a FantasyLabs projection of 54.4 receiving yards.
Cooper Kupp Under 101.5 Rec Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Betting against Cooper Kupp is not for the faint of heart, but he can have a fantastic NFC Championship Game and still fall short of this number.
Kupp averaged 120 receiving yards in the two earlier matchups with San Francisco, but the 49ers just held Green Bay wideout Davante Adams below his receiving yardage prop last week. Adams posted 90 yards but still fell below the 93.5 yardage total — it was a good game, but not a great game.
This is correlational play with my Beckham over prop, given that San Francisco's defense is playing at an elite level. Kupp has been incredible, but I'll always take the under on a triple-digit receiving prop.
We project Kupp for 98.1 yards on our FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool.
Matthew Stafford Under 280.5 Pass Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Familiarity breeds unders in the NFL.
With this serving as the third matchup between the Rams and 49ers, I expect a lower scoring game than the first two matchups. Vegas agrees with a total set at just 45.5 points despite a 27-24 score in their last battle this season (check real-time NFL odds here).
Stafford has played very well in the playoffs, but only threw for 202 yards against Arizona in the opening round of the playoffs. In last week's win over Tampa Bay, Stafford produced 63 of his 366 yards in the final game-saving drive.
Unless this becomes a shootout, I don't see Stafford eclipsing 280 passing yards. San Francisco's defense has been playing at an elite level, holding both Dak Prescott (254 passing yards) and Aaron Rodgers (225 yards) to minimal production.
We project Stafford for 278.5 yards, putting him slightly under this number. I expect the Rams to run a more balanced attack and the 49ers defense to keep Stafford from a blowup 300-yard passing day.
Sticking with our theme? I expect a good, but not great, performance by the Rams signal-caller.
