It’s another playoff appearance and another early flameout for the Cowboys in what’s become an annual tradition. They were blown out from the jump as the Packers dominated them, 48-32.
The sharps and big money saw it coming a mile away, knowing that fading Dallas in the postseason has been insanely profitable.
The Cowboys are now only 3-13-1 against the spread dating back to 1997, which is a big reason why 74% of the money and major sharp action backed the Pack. The 74% of money ATS was the largest amount on any team on Super Wild Card Weekend.
You can pretty much throw away any success Dallas has during the regular season once they reach the postseason. They were utterly dominant at home, winning all eight games at AT&T Stadium.
In fact, they won 16 straight home games dating back to the 2022 season. The Cowboys were also terrific ATS, going 6-2 while covering by an average of 12.81 points per game. Dallas also averaged a league-high 37.4 points per game at home, which was 5.5 points higher than any other team.
Instead, the Cowboys didn't score their first points until the final play of the first half against a defense ranked 27th in defense adjusted value over average (DVOA). They might have finished with 32 points, but the vast majority came in garbage time with the game well out of hand.
Naturally, the big question is what happens in Big D going forward. It’s been rumored that Mike McCarthy’s job could be in jeopardy with another dreadful showing.
In fact, Bill Belichick's odds to join the Cowboys went up precipitously after Dallas' blowout loss on Sunday.
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McCarthy is only 1-3 in the postseason since arriving in 2021, continuing a frightening trend that blighted the end of Green Bay tenure. McCarthy’s Packers choked in six straight postseasons despite being among the largest Super Bowl favorites from 2011-16. They then missed the playoffs in back-to-back years, leading to his dismissal.
A potential McCarthy firing would mean we have our ninth head coach opening of the cycle.
It would also mean over 25% of teams would find themselves with a new head coach next season.
It’s no foregone conclusion, but pundits were already speculating who Dallas might hire if Jerry Jones jettisoned McCarthy after another early exit.
Meanwhile, Dak Prescott figures to head into next season with questions about whether he can lead Dallas to a championship. His playoff failures have been well documented, and bettors have cleaned up fading him. Prescott’s just 2-5 straight up and 1-6 ATS in his postseason career. He entered the game 85th out of 88 quarterbacks ATS over the past 20 years.
We’ll know more in the coming days — if not sooner — if another Dallas disappointment leads to major changes in Big D. Either way, the Cowboys figure to face enormous pressure when the 2024 season kicks off with severe doubts over whether they’ll ever get over the hump.
