Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Playing Like Best Quarterback in NFL Right Now

I don't wish to alarm you, but Dak Prescott is playing quarterback better than anyone in football, and he has been for two months.

You watched on Thanksgiving. Prescott played perfect football. He completed 22 of 32 passes for 331 yards and four touchdowns without a single turnover or sack. His 14.7 ADOT was the highest by any QB all season, and his 97.0 PFF grade was the third highest quarterback game ever charted by PFF.

But it wasn't just the Thanksgiving game.

Prescott has been putting up monster stats week after week since coming out of the bye:

• Week 8: 304 yards, 4 TDs
• Week 9: 374 yards, 3 TDs
• Week 10: 404 yards, 4 TDs
• Week 11: 189 yards, 2 TDs
• Week 12: 331 yards, 4 TDs

That is a ridiculous stretch of football, an average of 320 yards and 3.4 TDs per game. Paced over a full season, this stretch would put Prescott at 5,447 yards and 58 touchdowns, really 61 TDs since he ran one in Week 10, too. Needless to say, those numbers would shatter every NFL record.

Since coming out of the bye in Week 7, the Cowboys made a material change to their offense, going away from a rushing attack that hasn't been working and letting Prescott rip the ball all over the field. The Cowboys rank second in the NFL at 65.5% pass rate in neutral situations since the bye. Just look at the obvious shift before and after the week off:

So what happened to trigger the change?

Well, it came one game after a blowout Dallas loss to San Francisco, 42-10, in which Prescott played by far his worst game of the season. He completed barely half his passes and threw three interceptions, as many as the rest of the season combined, and Dallas' offense stalled badly. The run game had been anemic, and it was clearly time for a change.

Dallas shifted its offense to pass-heavy and then some, tilting the passing attack heavily toward CeeDee Lamb, moving him all over the field and saturating him with targets for repeated monster performances. The Cowboys rank second in Passing and overall Offense DVOA, up from 17th and 18th before the bye.

Many pundits wrote Prescott and the Cowboys off after that 49ers game, but that appears to have been a grave mistake. Check out the league's advanced QB metrics since that game. Don't strain your eyes too hard trying to spot Prescott:

Prescott leads the NFL in EPA during that stretch at 0.381 EPA per play, an outrageous mark. That's nearly double new MVP favorite Jalen Hurts, and it's miles ahead of the second-highest QB at 0.209. And it's not like Prescott is doing this on checkdowns either; his 9.6 air yards per throw rank third in the league during that stretch. His fantasy football finishes those six weeks: 1, 3, 2, 1, 17, 3.

Okay, but that's just six games. The 49ers game counts, too, and what about the rest of the season?

Prescott is now the highest PFF-graded quarterback for the season at 92.1, ahead of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. For reference, that 92.1 grade would be higher than every season of Allen's career and all but one of Mahomes's. Seems good.

Remember Prescott's interceptions "problem" last season? His 1.6% Turnover Worthy Pass Rate this season ranks lowest of any regular starter, per PFF. Prescott's 27 Big Time Throws are tied for the league lead, too, so he's eliminating mistakes and making huge plays. Per Next Gen Stats, Prescott leads the league with 16 TDs this season targeting vertical routes — 14 of those in just the last five games alone.

Yes, Prescott is playing like the best quarterback in football, and he has been for awhile now.

And there are multiple ways we can profit as bettors.

Prescott looks like an excellent bet to lead the league in passing touchdowns, passing yards, or both.

The Cowboys' upcoming schedule appears daunting, but look at the Passing Defense DVOA marks of the teams Dallas will face: Seahawks (No. 23), Eagles (21), Bills (18), Dolphins (12), Lions (13), Commanders (32). Not one pass defense in the top 10, and an average Passing Defense DVOA of 20th.

That schedule should also mean Prescott will be on the field all game throwing, something he hasn't gotten to do in many Cowboys blowouts. He has missed 62 snaps already because of Dallas blowouts, almost a full game's worth of plays. Tougher opponents means more time on the field, more passes, more chances to run up numbers in a pass-heavy offense clicking at every turn.

Dallas will need to win, especially that Philadelphia game. Lose that one and the division is gone, and now the Cowboys likely rest that final Commanders game and Prescott's numbers are cooked. Any bet on Prescott is inherently a bet on the Cowboys too.

Right now, Prescott ranks second in passing touchdowns with 23. The only player he's behind, Josh Allen, has one more but doesn't play this week. By Thursday night, Prescott will likely lead the league.

Prescott's full-season pace would put him at 36 passing touchdowns, enough to lead the league since there's no quarterback above two pass TDs per game. But remember, Prescott is averaging 3.4 passing TDs per game since the bye. If he continues at that pace, he'd finish at 43 TDs and lap the league.

It's not fair to expect that pace all season, but it shows how much margin Prescott has. He was my best bet for this category before the season at +2000, and I'd make him the favorite right now.

You can bet Prescott to lead the league in passing TDs at +550 at BetMGM.

Use our BetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making Dak Prescott your pick to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns. 

Prescott to lead the league in passing yards is even juicier.

Right now, he sits at 2,935 yards. That ranks sixth in the NFL, though two of the names ahead of him haven't had a bye week yet, including the current leader, Sam Howell. Two others, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff, are threats to sit Week 18 and rest for the playoffs.

Remember, Prescott is averaging 320 YPG since the bye week. At his current season-long pace, Prescott has little chance to catch and pass the five quarterbacks in front of him. But if he's closer to 320 YPG over these final six games, Prescott would get to 4,855 yards. That would give him a shot at league leader, especially if he gets even more attempts in these non-blowout games as he actually has to play the fourth quarter.

Prescott is not the favorite to lead the league in yards, and he shouldn't be, but he's priced far too long at +1800 at DraftKings. I'd make him the second-favorite in the category, and there's a chance he could be going head-to-head with Howell in Week 18 for the yardage crown.

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Of course, there's one other even bigger award you should bet Prescott for, too: MVP.

It's no secret there's no clear MVP front runner this season.

Jalen Hurts is the betting favorite after a walk-off overtime touchdown against the Bills, but he ranks outside the top 10 in both passing yards and TDs and outside the top five of most QB efficiency metrics. Josh Allen has been terrific but plays for a .500 team. Tua Tagovailoa's production has fallen off. It doesn't feel like a Patrick Mahomes year. Brock Purdy? Maybe.

Why not the guy playing like the best quarterback in football for America's Team?

For the season, Prescott ranks second in both EPA per play and in EPA + CPOE, two all-in-one metrics that have been terrific MVP predictors. Nine of the past 10 MVP winners finished top two in both EPA and EPA + CPOE. Prescott trails only Purdy in both metrics.

The Cowboys are 8-3. If the underdog Eagles lose to the 49ers this week and then lose in Dallas next Sunday night, we could be 11 days away from a three-way tie atop the NFC. We know MVPs win a lot of games and almost always push for a top-2 seed — the last QB MVP outside a top-2 seed was Peyton Manning in 2008 — so the Cowboys would need to win the Eagles game, and probably most of the rest.

But if Dallas does keep winning and Prescott keeps shredding, the narrative will practically write itself.

All those big Cowboys games will be tough, but they also mean seminal national TV matchups against Hurts, Allen, and Tagovailoa. They represent head-to-head opportunities for Prescott against the other MVP favorites to be what he's already been for two months: the best QB in football.

Prescott was my MVP best bet coming into the season at +2500. With six games to go, he's still my best bet, now +1100 at ESPN Bet.

The Dak Prescott Redemption Tour continues Thursday night against Seattle. Get your bets in now.

Before placing your bet on Dak Prescott to win MVP, make sure to use our ESPN Bet promo code available to new registrants for bonus bets!