After an exciting doubleheader last week, we're back to normal on Monday Night Football.
Week 3's matchup between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys was expected to be a bit of a slog. With Dak Prescott out, this game had a total of just 39 before kickoff.
Of course, that's where we looked to attack with our live betting on Cowboys vs. Giants on Monday Night Football.
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious live betting chances.
Take a long look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
So with that in mind, here are the NFL Live Betting angles and scenarios we were keeping an eye on in Cowboys-Giants, as well as the live bets we've made.
The Live Bet We Made in Cowboys-Giants on Monday Night Football
Live Betting Scenario: Cowboys Take The Lead (Bet: OVER 35.5)
This is where things get a bit more interesting. Daboll's aggressive nature is likely to come out if the Giants fall behind, opening up the Giants offense. Daniel Jones' mobility is a key factor here, too, as he should have more chances for scrambles with New York chasing points.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas is likely to find more offensive success with a run-heavy approach. Between the two-headed attack of Tony Pollard and Ezekial Elliott and the still-strong offensive line, Dallas should be able to make some headway in the rushing game. I'm also projecting the Cowboys' line to fair better in the run game than the passing game, furthering this theory.
Pace metrics also point toward a Cowboys lead being good for the offenses. Dallas is a top-five team in pace of play when leading this season, and the Giants quickest split (relative to the rest of the league) is while trailing.
As always, I'd prefer to get a line better than the opening number before taking the over. I'm not going to be quite as picky here though. As long as the total doesn't move up considerably, a Dallas lead after a quarter or so should have me pulling the trigger.
And about midway through the second quarter, we had our opportunity, getting in a live bet on the over of 35.5 (-109) at BetRivers.
While the game had only produced 9 points at that point, four consecutive drives between the teams had made their way deep into opposing territory. Both offenses were moving the ball well and had left plenty of points on the table already. The 6-3 Cowboys lead also fit my pregame analysis of looking to the over with Dallas in front.
Chalk up a W, as this game landed at 39 total points scored.
2 Other Live Betting Scenarios We Were Watching for on Monday Night Football
1) Giants Take The Lead
This scenario requires a bit of conjecture. Brian Daboll is running the show for the Giants this year, after a four year stint as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo.
Since he's taken over in New York, the 2-0 Giants have still not managed to run an offensive play while leading by seven or more. Therefore, our options for figuring out how the Giants would handle a lead come down to 2021 Giants stats, or 2021 (or earlier) Bills numbers.
The Bills notoriously keep their foot on the gas pedal even with a big lead, something we took advantage of on Monday Night Football last week. However, I suspect Daboll will handle this one a bit differently.
The Giants don't have Josh Allen and would be better served to slow things down if possible. Buffalo played much slower in the first two seasons with Daboll as OC, prior to Allen's breakout. They ranked 27th in pace when leading by seven or more in 2018, for example.
Therefore, I was looking at unders with the Giants winning. Forcing Cooper Rush and the depleted Cowboys receivers to beat them through the air likely won't produce a ton of scoring, and the Giants should look to milk the clock.
My key numbers are the Giants with a lead of more than seven, and a total in the 40s. It's not an exact science though, so follow me in the Action App to get alerts when I pull the trigger, or check back with this article.
2) Player Props
This isn't a great game for player props, with only a few values in our Props Tool. However, each of them has a clear game script based path toward live betting them.
We're showing a slight value on Daniel Jones passing overs — attempts leads the way, but completions as well. These are clearly better bets with the Giants trailing, especially if they attempted a run-first approach early on and brought the number down.
Similarly, we're on the unders in Saquon Barkley's rushing props. This is the inverse of the above, but a Cowboys lead — especially if the Giants tried to establish the run early — is a perfect recipe for taking some live unders. We also like some of Barkley's receiving props to go over, so the same logic applies.
On the flip side, the Cowboys getting off to a lead is a good thing for their passing game unders. We're showing (slight) pregame value betting under on various Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, and Noah Brown receiving props.
If one of those three getting off to a fast start through the air is what causes the Cowboys lead in the first place, taking the under if the line jumps up should be a strong option.
