“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule.”
The quote comes from Mr. Jaggers, a lawyer in Charles Dickens' "Great Expectations," but there may be no better line to describe the recent history of the Dallas Cowboys.
January 28th, 1996 feels like a lifetime ago for almost everyone. Not because it's almost 10,000 days from this season's upcoming Super Bowl 57, but because it's a day "America's Team" can't afford to forget.
Since the Cowboys' last Super Bowl in 1995-96, thirteen different NFC teams and thirteen different AFC teams have made it to a Conference Championship Game: the Cowboys, Dolphins, Texans, Browns, Commanders and Lions are the six franchises to not make it since 1996.
What makes the journey since 1995 so tough in Dallas is the success. Yes, the success.
All About The Wins
The Cowboys have 203 total wins straight up in the regular season since 1996, which ranks 13th in the NFL. All twelve teams ahead of Dallas have made the Conference Championship game in that span, with ten winning Super Bowls (the Titans and Vikings haven't).
When looking specifically at win totals, which inherently point to season-to-season expectations, the Cowboys have had their share.
Since winning the Super Bowl back in 1995, Dallas has had a win total above 9 eight times prior to this season. In those eight years, the Cowboys have gone under their win total every single time.
The Philly Curse
Between 2001 and 2004, the Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East four consecutive times, finally in 2004 resulting in a Super Bowl appearance — a 24-21 loss to the Patriots.
Since then, no team has won the NFC East in consecutive years.
Between 2005 and 2021, Dallas has won it six times, the Eagles five times and the Giants and Washington both three times.
Looking at this season, the Cowboys opened as -120 favorites to win the NFC East, but they are now as long as +140 at BetMGM.
Since 2005, the Cowboys have only opened up as odds-on favorites (+100 or shorter; ex. -120) to win the NFC East three times, including this year, and the results haven't been pretty.
Cowboys Open as Odds-On Favorite to win NFC East since 2005
- 2022: -120 odds
- 2020: -175 odds (finished 3rd in Division)
- 2008: -170 odds (finished 3rd in Division)
America's Team, Not America's Betting Team
"The most valuable franchise in sports." When a bettor sees that phrase, all they see is dollar signs … literally.
Since 2005, the Dallas Cowboys have been listed as the "public side" in 163 total games, the 10th-most in the NFL (public side is when a team receives at least 51% of the bets on an individual game).
In terms of profitability for bettors as the public side, the Cowboys rank 24th of 32 teams, losing a $100 bettor $716 in this spot. Even further, in the playoffs as the public side, Dallas is 0-5-1 against the spread since 2005.
