Cowboys-Raiders Predictions
Cowboys-Raiders Under 51.5
Chris Raybon: When the casual fan thinks Cowboys-Raiders, they probably envision a potential shootout, but this is a sneaky under spot.
Both defenses are above-average in generating pressure, with Dallas ranking 11th (26.1%) and Las Vegas ranking 12th (26.0%). Both offenses will be without a top receiving weapon they had earlier in the season: Amari Cooper (COVID-19) for Dallas and Henry Ruggs (released) for Vegas. And both teams are on a short week after scoring fewer than 14 points on offense a week ago.
The Cowboys been impressive on defense (fourth in Football Outsiders' DVOA), so even if the Raiders can’t slow down the Cowboys offense, it’s unlikely the Raiders offense will hold up its end of the bargain as far as the total — the highest of any game in Week 12, save for Bucs-Colts (52.5 points).
Tony Pollard Over 14.5 Rec Yards
Mike Randle: I've noticed all season that teams deploy their backup running back at a much higher rate on Thursdays. Here are some notable lines from RB2s on Thursday nights this season:
- J.D. McKissic: 93 total yards, 1 TD
- Chuba Hubbard: 52 rushing yards
- Sony Michel: 37 rushing yards, 1 TD
- Ronald Jones: 20 total yards
- A.J. Dillion: 78 rushing yards
- Nyheim Hines: 108 total yards, 1 TD
In each of those situations, the player beat their rushing or receiving prop total for that game. In some cases (Hines), they beat both.
Without lead wide receiver Amari Cooper (COVID) and CeeDee Lamb questionable, I'm backing Pollard to beat this low receiving yardage total. Pollard has beat this total in seven of 10 games and has the perfect trio of variables working in his favor: (1) The Thursday trend, (2) no Cooper, and (3) a Raiders defense that's allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Pollard ranks fourth among all running backs with 2.7 yards per route run, per PlayerProfiler. He just needs to see an increase in opportunity, which should come at home on Thanksgiving.
I would bet this over to 16.5 yards.
