The five most valuable props for Sunday night's divisional round matchup between the Cowboys and 49ers target Brock Purdy, Tony Pollard and Christian McCaffrey, according to Action Network's predictive analytics.
The most valuable prop of them all, however, targets the under on receiving yards for the Cowboys' WR2.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Cowboys vs. 49ers
- Michael Gallup Under 37.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Christian McCaffrey Under 37.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Brock Purdy Under 30.5 Pass Attempts -114 (FanDuel)
- Brock Purdy Under 19.5 Completions +105 (DraftKings)
- Tony Pollard Under 2.5 Receptions +130 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Friday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices, according to our predictive models.
The most valuable prop on the board for Sunday night is on Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup to go under his receiving yard prop total.
Gallup is projected to put up just 30.6 yards on Sunday relative to a 37.5 total. That's a roughly 12% betting edge. Effectively, you'll be receiving a 12% discount from the fair value price.
Another way to think about it: You're accumulating 12% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Pick: Michael Gallup Under 37.5 Receiving Yards |
Christian McCaffrey is expected to go under on his receiving yards, too, despite his recent production.
Our algorithms think the market is overvaluing his line to the tune of an 11% betting edge. The models project McCaffrey to record closer to 31 yards receiving relative to a 37.5 total.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 37.5 Receiving Yards |
The next two props target 49ers rookie quarterback Brock Purdy and how many times he'll drop back to pass on Sunday. Mr. Irrelevant is projected at just 28 attempts relative to a 30.5 total and just 18 completions compared to a 19.5 total. The completions prop has plus-money, too.
Both picks provide roughly a 5% betting edge.
And while Cowboys running back Tony Pollard is expected to put up exactly 2.5 receptions on Sunday, the plus-money vig at +130 is enough to give this pick some betting edge. This selection as is would provide a roughly 3% discount compared to its fair odds price.
