Ezekiel Elliott
Longest Rush Under 11.5 Yards (-114; FanDuel)
Elliott has gone over this in eight of 16 games, so 11.5 has been his median in this market on the season.
However, Elliott has averaged 15 rush attempts per game. When you factor in he’s expected to see fewer rush attempts in this game (his current rush attempt prop is 11.5), the chances of him clearing this is closer to 57%.
That’s before we even factor in the brutal matchup against a 49ers defense that ranks second in Rush DVOA. In fact, San Francisco has allowed an RB to clear this number in eight of 18 games (44%) this season.
If the Cowboys were to have a running back clear this number, it would most likely be Tony Pollard. So, using back-of-the-napkin math, Elliott would have less than a 22% chance of clearing this number against the 49ers defense.
I would project Zeke staying under this number in the 60-65% range and love the value we are getting here. I would only bet this down to 10.5 because every yard in this range is worth around 6-7%.
I'd put 1.5 units on this prop, but I want to emphasize that I would only play it to 10.5.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott Under 11.5 Longest Rush |
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Christian McCaffrey
Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)
McCaffrey has only cleared this number in two of his last eight games, and he’s been held to three or fewer targets in four of the last six.
This, despite Deebo Samuel missing three games and Elijah Mitchell sidelined for five. Obviously both Deebo and Mitchell back in the mix eat into McCaffrey’s usage.
This total was much easier for McCaffrey to clear – and then some – with Carolina, where his only other competition for targets in the passing game was DJ Moore.
Another factor to consider is Brock Purdy’s willingness to scramble. He had a season-high 16 rushing yards in the Wild Card Round and might be more willing to get yards himself than dump off to McCaffrey.
Dallas’ defense presents a challenge in that it generates the highest pressure rate, so McCaffrey may have to block more than usual. The Cowboys have only allowed two backs to clear 37.5 all season.
I project McCaffrey closer to 33.5 receiving yards.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 37.5 Receiving Yards |
