The Dallas Cowboys (3-3) and San Francisco 49ers (3-4) will face off tonight on NFL Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on platforms like Peacock and YouTube TV.
The 49ers are consensus 5.5-point favorites over the Cowboys (49ers -5.5), while the game total is set at 48 points. The 49ers are -250 on the moneyline, while Dallas is +200 to pull off the upset.
In Year 9 as a Cowboy, Dallas QB Dak Prescott is averaging his second-worst completion percentage of his career at 63.4%. His 2.7% INT rate (with 8 TDs and 6 interceptions) is also tied for a career worst. 49ers QB Brock Purdy is completing 63.9% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempts, 9 TDs and 7 picks.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs. 49ers predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- Cowboys vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -5.5
- Cowboys vs. 49ers over/under: 48 points
- Cowboys vs. 49ers moneyline: 49ers -200, Cowboys +165
- Cowboys vs. 49ers best bet: Cowboys +5.5 (Bet to +4.5)
Cowboys vs. 49ers Picks and Predictions
Prediction
Cowboys +5.5 (Bet to +4.5)
My 49ers vs. Cowboys best bet is Cowboys +4.5 For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I'm rolling with the Cowboys against the spread (ATS) at +3.5 or better. The best available line, as of Saturday night, was +5 (-110) at ESPN Bet.
Moneyline
This could be a weather game, but the Cowboys have been good on offense off the bye and we really don't know what we're going to get from the 49ers offense. I'm passing on the moneyline and taking the points with the 49ers.
Over/Under
I'm in line with this game's total and have no pick.
My pick: Cowboys +5.5 (Bet to +4.5)
Cowboys vs. 49ers NFL Sunday Night Football Preview
It's not always about who you play but when you play them. While the Cowboys spent Week 7 on a bye, the 49ers spent Week 7 getting (further) decimated by injury.
The big one is Brandon Aiyuk, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Brock Purdy leads all passers with 9.0 yards per attempt since he came into the league in 2022 (min. 500 attempts), and Aiyuk is the biggest reason why. Aiyuk is Purdy's most targeted receiver, catching 121-of-183 (66.1%) passes for 2,000 yards and an absurd 10.9 YPA.
The Cowboys are still second in pressure rate despite losing Micah Parsons (ankle) in Week 4, but that's because they're blitzing at a top-10 rate under Mike Zimmer. Against the blitz, Aiyuk's 21 targets lead the team by eight and his 212 yards lead the team by 110, according to FTN. And since the start of last season, Aiyuk has posted 630 yards on 46 targets against the blitz (13.7 YPT).
Don't sleep on the absence of Jauan Jennings (hip), either. Jennings leads the team in receiving yards per game (67.3) and has career-high efficiency numbers across the board. His absence compounds the loss of Aiyuk money downs, as they have produced first downs on 41-of-78 (52.6%) Purdy targets on third/fourth down while Deebo Samuel (questionable-illness/wrist) has converted only 12-of-33 (36.3%).
In fact, Aiyuk and Jennings represent two of Purdy's three most efficient first-down producers, period. Below are the six players Purdy has targeted the most in his career and their first-down rates.
- Brandon Aiyuk 51.4% (183 targets)
- George Kittle 46.9% (162)
- Jauan Jennings 40.9% (88)
- Deebo Samuel 38.5% (135)
- Christian McCaffrey 37.2% (113)
- Kyle Juszczyk 30.8% (39)
Samuel is recovering from what has been reported as fluid in his lungs and pneumonia, which limited him to four snaps last week against the Chiefs and forced him to spend two nights in the hospital. Superhuman that he is, he returned to practice in a limited fashion on both Thursday and Friday and is tracking towards playing. However, I'm not even sure he was fully healthy before that, so a Deebo Decoy Game is fully in play. He hasn't looked quite right all year and has mostly lacked explosiveness, especially since suffering a calf injury in Week 2. Save for a couple of big plays, Samuel hasn't been as impactful or consistent as in years past. His 43.8% receiving success rate and 42.1% rushing success rate are well below his career averages of 51.8% and 53.1%, respectively.
Not to be left out, George Kittle (questionable, foot) is also on the injury report, but he should be good to go and represents the 49ers' biggest threat on offense. He had three catches, 67 yards, three touchdowns and one F*** Dallas t-shirt when these teams last met. With that said, the Cowboys have gone from below-average to top-12 in DVOA against tight ends under Zimmer, and those numbers would look even better had they not allowed a fluky, 52-yard walk-in TD to Sam LaPorta on a trick play a couple of weeks ago. Still, that was LaPorta's only catch of the game, and they also held Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to a combined one catch for 4 yards on two targets back in Week 3.
It was great to see rookie first-rounder Ricky Pearsall back on the field after getting shot in the offseason, but he finished with three catches for 21 yards on five targets and did nothing to suggest he can be an immediate difference-maker.
The 49ers are also down to their third kicker of the year in Anders Carlson, who has missed half of his career field goal attempts from 40-49 yards. Carlson missed an extra point last week and has now missed 15% of his career extra points. The Cowboys have no such problems with Brandon Aubrey, who is better from 50-plus than Carlson is from 30-plus, knocking in 18-of-19 (94.7%) career attempts of 50 or longer with a long of 65. The Cowboys are No. 1 in special-teams DVOA while the 49ers are No. 31, and with forecasts calling for 13mph winds and a slight chance of rain, Dallas' edge on special teams could end up being a factor.
Without Parsons and a functional GM, the Cowboys are a mediocre team, but right now, the 49ers just might be, too. Even with Purdy averaging 8.5 YPA on the season, the 49ers' average point differential is just +3.1, and their median point differential is -1.
The early bye should help the Cowboys defense get more acclimated to Zimmer's scheme, particularly as it pertains to run fits. They have improved from allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game over their first three games to 100.7 in the three games since, and they've lucked into a spot in which they should be able to stack the box against Jordan Mason just like the Chiefs did last week.
Mike McCarthy is…Mike McCarthy, so he's typically only worth mentioning as a fade, but that's not the case this week. Give him a bye week, and all of a sudden, he's Tom Landry. According to our Action Labs data, McCarthy is 13-3-1 (81%) ATS off the bye, covering by an average of 6.0 points per game.
That includes a 3-1 ATS mark since taking over in Dallas. Last season in this spot, the Cowboys covered the spread by 16.5 points in a 43-20 thrashing of the Rams, and I thought the schematic adjustments McCarthy made to the offense during the bye played a huge role in that.
The bye also helps avoid having to play a game the week after playing a physical Lions team, which historically has been a losing proposition, with the Vikings as the latest victim on Thursday night. Instead, the Cowboys' embarrassing 47-9 loss to the Lions puts the trends in their favor, as history says we should get a strong bounce-back effort. Per Action Labs, underdogs .500 or better that scored fewer than 10 points in their last game are 77-39-3 (66%) ATS since 2003, covering by an average of 2.8 points.
While the Cowboys have generally been known to dominate at home the past few years, one positive development this season is that they are 3-0 SU/ATS on the road. Given how they've played at home and what's been going on in the media, I think getting out of Dallas will benefit Dak Prescott this week, and the bye should help him and CeeDee Lamb get back on the same page. Per Action Labs, the Cowboys are 11-4-1 (74%) ATS on the road following a loss with Prescott as the starting quarterback, covering by 6.8 points per game.
My pick: Cowboys +5.5 (Bet to +4.5)
Betting Trends
- 51% of bets and 55% of the money are on the Cowboys to cover the spread.
- 76% of bets and 69% of the money are on the Over.
- 89% of bets and 65% of the money on the moneyline are on the 49ers.
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 27 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC / Peacock, YouTube TV |
49ers vs. Cowboys is scheduled for an 8:20 p.m. ET start time, live from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, on Sunday night. The game is broadcast live by NBC and is streaming on Peacock and YouTube TV.
NFL Weather
