In the final game of the NFL Divisional Round, the San Francisco 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys. The winner will take on the Philadelphia Eagles, who blew the doors off the Giants, 38-7, on Saturday night.
The Cowboys enter off an impressive performance after knocking out Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, 31-14. The 49ers beat their division rival Seahawks, 41-23, in Brock Purdy’s playoff debut.
The 49ers enter as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5. In what could be the best game of the weekend, here’s a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football.
+4.5 (Alternate line)
The market remains too low on the Cowboys given how their season came to an end. Dak Prescott struggled with interceptions and the defense couldn’t stop the likes of Gardner Minshew or Sam Howell.
But on Monday night, both narratives were flipped on their head. Prescott was excellent — 305 yards, 75.8% completion rate and five total touchdowns — while the Dallas defense held Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in check until the game was fully out of reach.
To me, this line is overvalued in favor of San Francisco. Brock Purdy has been great and the 49ers from top to bottom are dominant. But this is too many points for a high-octane Dallas offense with an excellent front seven that breaks into the opposing backfield with ease.
While the San Francisco defense ranks first in DVOA, there were some concerns against Seattle. The 49ers struggled to defend the deep ball — DK Metcalf hauled in an 50-yard touchdown — and it wasn’t until the fourth quarter when S.F. put on the jets.
And that came against an overrated and below-average passing offense led by Geno Smith. They even ran for over 100 yards on the ground, too, behind a worse offensive line.
While the narrative will be around Prescott’s turnover-worthy plays, the Cowboys are second in success rate with him under center. This is a dynamic offense that can move the ball with ease, and as my colleague Anthony Dabbundo stated, the 49ers defense hasn’t had a particularly difficult schedule.
San Francisco played only two teams that ranked inside the top 10 in EPA per dropback: Miami and Kansas City. The Dolphins scored 17 points and the Chiefs blew the doors off this 49ers defense en route to a 44-23 win.
I’m not expecting this game to be a blowout on either side. But this line should be much closer to a PK. Purdy has yet to see a defense of this caliber, with a high pressure rate, and in the biggest game of his career, I expect a few mistakes.
This is more of a coin flip than people think. I’ll take the points and trust Prescott to put on another dominant playoff performance.
T.Y. Hilton
Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
When it comes to the playoffs, we’ve seen teams rely on veterans in bigger moments. We saw it with Cole Beasley stepping up for Buffalo and Dallas has done the same thing with T.Y. Hilton.
Hilton caught two passes for 23 yards against Tampa Bay last week and played 36% of snaps. He is rarely used in non-passing downs and is the best deep threat Dallas has.
As my colleague Nick Giffen discussed on "The Touchdown Show" as part of Action Network’s Power Hour, the 49ers are 24th in DVOA against the deep pass. That’s a huge drop off from No. 1 against short passes.
Hilton’s routes are solely long passes. He has an aDOT of 16.9 and often works out of the slot. That’s a great matchup for him against a struggling Jimmie Ward.
Since joining the Cowboys, Hilton has slowly seen his usage increase. He has played over 35% of snaps in both of the last two weeks and it’s come at the expense of Noah Brown. While the 49ers will key on stopping the always-dominant CeeDee Lamb, this is a sneaky spot to trust a veteran wide receiver who can hit this over in one catch.
Veterans step up in big games and Hilton has big-play potential. He has cleared this number in two of four games and came just three yards short last week. But the volume was there — he was targeted four times.
Dallas is also underdogs and that could lead to more passing situations, which should only benefit Hilton. Despite their domination of Tampa, Hilton was still seen on nearly 40% of snaps.
Dak Prescott
Over 16.5 Rushing Yards
When you think of running quarterbacks, you don’t think of Dak Prescott. But he is extremely athletic and mobile, and we’ve seen his ability to scramble out of danger on multiple occasions.
Prescott has gone over this number in four of his last six games — one game he finished with 16 yards — but he’s rushed for 20+ yards in each of his last two playoff games. One of which was against the 49ers last season.
We’ve seen Prescott have a propensity for running in bigger games. Most quarterbacks save themselves from injury in the regular season rather than scrambling for a few extra few yards. But in a win-or-go-home playoff game, Prescott won’t hold back.
Geno Smith scrambled four times for 28 yards against San Francisco last week and even Jarrett Stidham ran for 34 yards in Week 17. Not to mention Andy Dalton (21) and Justin Herbert (22) had success this season.
Prescott has speed and isn’t afraid of breaking out of the pocket. He’s rushed at least five times in five of his last six games and I expect another strong showing on Sunday night.
Chris Raybon has Prescott projected for 23 rushing yards and I think he can even surpass that number. There’s value here against a San Francisco defense that should create constant pressure and force Prescott to scramble.
The Parlay (+487)
- Cowboys ALT Spread +4.5
- T.Y. Hilton Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
- Dak Prescott Over 16.5 Rushing Yards
Pick: 3-Leg Same Game Parlay |
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