Two of the top teams in the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, meet on Sunday Night Football.
While both teams have played well over the first four weeks, neither has played a team with more than two wins. So, let's see what they are capable of against stiffer competition.
Recent matchups between the Cowboys and 49ers have resulted in hard-fought victories for San Francisco.
Looking at how these teams match up, a similar game looks to be in store. Let’s put together a Cowboys vs. 49ers same game parlay based on that game script.
The Parlay (odds via Fanduel) (+1044):
- Alt Spread: 49ers -5.5 (+122)
- Cowboys Under 20.5 (-102)
- Deebo Samuel Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Tony Pollard 50+ Rush Yards (-180)
49ers -5.5 Alt Spread
Both of these teams boast strong defenses that torture opposing quarterbacks with dominant pass rushes. With a push coming from the defensive side of the ball, the offenses will be my focus.
Both of these teams have devasted their weak competition as they each rank top five in both yards and points per drive. However, the 49ers have done so in a more impressive fashion.
San Francisco has imposed its will through the air and on the ground. The 49ers' passing attack ranks second in net yards per attempt. On the ground, the 49ers have gashed opponents and are averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. The Cowboys, on the other hand, rank 15th in net yards per pass attempt and 18th in rush yards per attempt.
One of the key differences is the wide array of playmakers on San Francisco's roster. The 49ers have leaned on Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, both of whom average over 100 yards per game.
San Francisco's other advantage is its scheme and playcalling. Kyle Shanahan is considered one of the best play callers in the game and has the offense firing on all cylinders.
While the 49ers have a deeply engrained system, the Cowboys recently moved off their play-caller and pivoted to head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has experience, but has only had one game against adversity this season, and that ended in a loss to the Cardinals. Things might get better as the year goes on, but as he dusts off the cobwebs against an elite defense, things could get rough.
With the defenses being a push, I’m backing the team with sustained offensive success, more playmakers and a more established play-caller.
Cowboys Under 20.5
Dallas has failed to break this threshold in one game, its loss against Arizona. The difference between that game and the rest was the Cowboys failed to force a turnover. Against San Francisco, Dallas will be facing the team that has the second-fewest turnovers per drive in the NFL.
Without the defense making life easy, the burden will be on the offense to sustain long drives and produce points. This year, that has been one of their weaknesses. Dallas has the third-worst Red Zone efficiency, per Pro Football Reference, as only seven of their 19 drives have ended in touchdowns.
Dallas hasn't broken 20 points in its previous two matchups against the 49ers and with a more run-centric offense, breaking that threshold will be even more difficult.
Deebo Samuel Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
Samuel has gone under this mark just once this year, last week.
Brandon Aiyuk's emergence means Samuel will be facing the Cowboys' second-best corner. With Dallas already down its number one corner in Trevon Diggs, Samuel could be facing the Cowboys' third-best corner. That's a matchup that should excite a player of Samuel's caliber.
Tony Pollard 50+ Rush Yards
Dallas made schematic moves to lean into the run in competitive games. That plays heavily into Pollard having a productive game. Pollard has gone under this mark just once this year — last week against New England. Arguably the only reason he fell short was because Dallas led by so much. That won't be the case this week, so expect the Cowboys to lean on their feature back.
