Even though the Cowboys' expectations were high prior to the season, I think it's fair to say that most bettors would've happily taken the Bears getting three points at home on this December Thursday night if they were given that opportunity over the summer.
In fact, when full-season lookahead lines were released back in August, the Bears were seen as 4-point favorites in tonight's game.
Obviously, things look a bit different now. Both teams have underperformed — each at 6-6 — but the Cowboys have certainly looked like the better one, and their +74 point differential blows away Chicago's +4.
That 12-game sample has led us to tonight's line of Cowboys -3, and bettors are all aboard the Dallas train. But you're here to learn if sharps are among them …
Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears Sharp Betting Pick
8:20 p.m. ET | FOX
According to our public money page, 75% of bets and 85% of money are landing on the Cowboys, so it's pretty obvious that sportsbooks will be in need of a Bears cover tonight.
But they haven't moved the spread to attract more Chicago bettors … why?
For one thing, it's worth noting that 3 is probably the hardest number off which to move. The difference between -3 and -2.5 or -3.5, for example, is much more significant than other half-point moves given the frequency of final scores decided by field-goal margins.
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However, if oddsmakers didn't have reason to think that the Bears would keep this game within three points, they'd certainly adjust the number to limit their liability.
As you probably could've guessed, they do have that reason, and it's come in the form of sharp action.
According to Sports Insights' Bet Signals, which are triggered by market moves that stem from sharp action, pros have hit the Bears at +3 on 11 different occasions. For Dallas, the number of sharp moves has been just three, one of which came at -2.5.
Still, the overwhelming liability has the juice on this spread inching in the Cowboys' direction, as the -3 is now listed with around a -115 payout.
But given how sharps have approached the number to this point, I wouldn't necessarily count on a move to -3.5. And if it does happen, I definitely wouldn't count on it lasting.
Sharp angle: Bears (line has remained +3)
