The standalone island game of Wild Card Weekend is here as the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off on Monday night.
It’s a highly anticipated bout as Tom Brady looks to survive and advance despite a sub-.500 record in the regular season. The Bucs won the NFC South after a Week 17 comeback against the Carolina Panthers.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, were blown out in Week 18 by the Washington Commanders, ending a red-hot skid in which Dallas won eight of 10.
Dallas enters as 2.5-point favorites with an over/under hovering around the mid-40s.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Monday Night Football.
Game Total Over 45.5
Since Dak Prescott returned from injury, the Cowboys offense has been incredibly efficient.
The public discussion has been around Prescott’s interception rate. He’s thrown at least two picks in five games, and an interception in nine of his last 10. Dallas' offense, however, also ranks fifth in EPA/play (excluding turnovers) since Week 7.
As my colleague Anthony Dabbundo broke it down, only the Chiefs have a higher passing success rate. Tampa Bay, while their defense is getting healthier, rank just 15th in pass defense DVOA.
The Bucs have one of the worst defenses when it comes to guarding the slot and tight ends — I’ll get to that later — and Prescott should be able to funnel the offense through Ceedee Lamb and Dalton Schultz.
As for the Tampa offense, its drawing a Dallas defense that’s shown some cracks. Anthony Brown and Jordan Lewis are both out with injury, leaving the Cowboys secondary thin and vulnerable.
While Trevon Diggs should hold his own against Mike Evans on the outside, there are opportunities to attack in the short game through Chris Godwin and even Cade Otton.
The Bucs activated center Ryan Jensen off the injured reserve, a huge boost to the offensive line. Tom Brady’s biggest issue all season has been pressure in the pocket and opposing defenses getting to him early and often.
I think this is a classic opportunity where both defenses are getting too much respect. Neither team should find much success on the ground, which would chew clock. They should keep the ball in their star quarterbacks’ hands en route to a higher-scoring affair.
Rather than picking a side, I like backing the over as the main leg to build around in this same game parlay.
CeeDee Lamb
Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
One of the most consistent wide receivers in the NFL, Ceedee Lamb enters with 100-plus receiving yards in three of his last four games.
In the season opener against Tampa Bay, Lamb had just two receptions for 29 yards — but he was targeted 11 times and should rebound here. Despite his struggles against the Bucs, their defense — particularly defending the slot — has been abysmal.
Since that game, Lamb has caught fewer than five passes just once. He’s received double-digit targets in eight games and has broken a reception for at least 20 yards on 13 separate occasions.
My colleague Nick Giffen discussed this on Green Dot Daily when previewing the game, saying they were second-worst in the NFL when guarding slot receivers. This season, Lamb has lined up out of the slot on 62.5 percent of snaps.
Cowboys receivers have struggled outside of Lamb. Dalton Schultz is the next-best in total yards — nearly 800 fewer — and Michael Gallup even failed to break 450. Dak Prescott will surely lean on his star receiver in the playoffs.
Following the narrative of a high-scoring game, I’m going with the correlated play of Lamb’s over. In games where Dallas has scored 20-plus points, Lamb has hit the 70-yard mark in 11 of 14 games.
Given his high ceiling and great matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks the 100-yard total once again.
Chris Godwin Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Cade Otton over 24.5 Receiving Yards
Building off the expectation of a high-scoring game and Tom Brady having more time in the pocket to operate, I love the idea of backing Cade Otton and Chris Godwin.
I’ve already touched on Dallas’ injury woes in the secondary and where they are most exposed is in the short-passing game. That’s where Godwin thrives — he has a 6.0 aDOT — and he should have no issues.
Like Lamb, Godwin is targeted early and often. He’s become Brady’s favorite receiver and has seen double-digit targets in eight games. While he had just 35 yards against Dallas in Week 1, there were two reasons why he saw less action than normal.
First, he entered the season fresh off a serious injury and was working back to full health. He played just 19 snaps against Dallas, yet saw three targets and eclipsed over half his prop for this week’s game in limited action. Outside of Week 18 — when T.B. rested its starters — Godwin hasn’t seen fewer than 66 snaps since Week 9.
As for Otton, this is a great bounce-back opportunity for him. He hasn’t cleared this number in four straight, but before then he had 25-plus yards in five of six. He’s become a safety valve for Brady, and like Godwin, was rested against Atlanta.
That shows his value to the team and even in Weeks 16 and 17, Otton saw at least six targets. He just didn’t haul them in. If it makes you feel any better, Sean Koerner is also on this prop and has Otton projected closer to 29.5 yards.
The Parlay (+986)
- Over 45.5 Points
- CeeDee Lamb Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
- Chris Godwin Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
- Cade Otton Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
Pick: 4-Leg Same Game Parlay (+986) |
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