Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Cowboys vs. Giants parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Cowboys vs. Giants parlay built at BetMGM.
Cowboys vs. Giants Parlay for Thursday Night Football
- Cowboys -6 (-112)
- Under 45 (-108)
- Rico Dowdle Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+135)
Full Cowboys vs. Giants Parlay Odds: +2000 | $10 Bet Wins $200
Cowboys -5.5 (-110) & Under 45 (-110)
I'm including both of these legs together because of how I arrived at them.
Typically, a higher scoring game makes it slightly easier for a favorite to cover. Using this game, for example, the six-point spread is only 10% of the points in a 60-point game, while it's 20% of the total points in a game that finishes at 30.
As such, we get somewhat better odds parlaying the favorite with the under than we would with the over.
While that all makes sense as a general case, I'm not sure it does for Dallas specifically. They have the league's worst run defense, but a fairly strong pass rush and pass defense.
What that means is that when Dallas gets to play from the front, the opposing offense is going to have a very hard time catching up — particularly when their quarterback is Daniel Jones. Pairing these two together gets us to odds of +290 on BetMGM.
Rico Dowdle Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Cowboys playing from in front obviously means more rushing and less passing from their offense. Their backfield is currently splitting carries between Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, with Dowdle having a slight lead in carries, snaps, and efficiency.
Touches for Elliott have dropped each week so far this season, as Dallas realizes who the better back is at this point in their careers. Especially considering the short week with a Thursday game, it's fairly likely that they take it even easier on the veteran Elliott.
We aren't getting any "bonus juice" by pairing this with our other picks, but by adding it in it brings the total to +450, which would be a fine parlay in it's own right if you wanted to stop there.
Malik Nabers Anytime TD (+135)
We are, however, getting a huge anti-correlation boost by including a Giants touchdown prop in the parlay. Since we're betting on a lower-scoring game that the Cowboys cover, including anything from the Giants offense clearly goes against the rest of our picks.
However, it's not like the Giants won't score at some point in this game. If they do, odds are it's via Nabers.
His 32.7% target share leads the entire NFL, as do his 37 targets and three receiving touchdowns (tied with a handful of players).
Our current projections have Nabers with a 40% chance to score a touchdown in this game, but adding this parlay takes the odds all the way to +2000 — which represents a slightly less than 25% chance at Nabers finding the end zone considering our previous odds.
That's worth giving up some correlation for.
Full Cowboys vs. Giants Parlay Odds: +2000 | $10 Bet Wins $200
