We have four Cowboys vs. Giants predictions for Thursday Night Football to start Week 4. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., on Prime Video.
The Cowboys (1-2) are favored by 5.5 points over the Giants (1-2), but the spread has moved to Cowboys -5 at some sportsbooks. The over/under is sitting at 45 points at most places, with over bettors able to find 44.5, but no 45.5s still available for under bettors.
Dallas has lost two straight at home to the Saints and Ravens. The Cowboys defense has struggled this season, although it'll be hoping that a matchup against Daniel Jones is just what the doctor ordered. Jones, though, led the Giants to a win over the Browns last week. Malik Nabers was the star of the show, and we have a prop on one of his overs tonight.
Let's break down our Thursday Night Football best bets and NFL predictions.
Cowboys vs. Giants Picks and Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Thursday Night Football Odds
- Spread: Cowboys -5.5
- Total: 45 points scored
- Moneylines: Cowboys -235 | Giants +195
John LanFranca's Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction Against the Spread
The Giants match up quite well with the Cowboys, and I'm expecting a competitive game on Thursday night.
The Cowboys defense is 32nd, a.k.a dead last, in Rush DVOA, and the unit is the NFL's worst red-zone defense. Giants running back Devin Singletary has been better than serviceable this season, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and 3.64 yards after contact per rush, ranking him third of all backs with 20 or more carries.
The Cowboys' inability to stop the run should greatly assist in Daniel Jones staying ahead of the sticks, which will limit the third-and-long situations he'll face. The good news for Jones, who has targeted his rookie star receiver Malik Nabers at an incredible rate, is that the Dallas defense also allows opposing offenses to target their first read 78.9% of passes against them this season. That's the highest mark for any defense in the NFL.
Lastly, the Giants pass rush is starting to take form. New York generated an astounding 36 pressures against the Browns in Week 3, sacking Deshaun Watson eight times and limiting him to 4.0 yards per attempt. New York has also been stout in the red zone, allowing just one touchdown in their opponents' nine red-zone possessions over the last two weeks.
It will not be surprising if the Cowboys bounce-back performance never comes to fruition and the Giants win this game outright, so take the points.
Pick: Giants +5.5 (-110)
Cowboys vs. Giants Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Cowboys defense hasn’t looked great this season, allowing 29.7 points per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL.
However, this unit isnt that bad. The Dallas defense is built to play with a lead with a strong pass rush and light, speedy linebackers that are great in pass coverage and rushing the quarterback. The Cowboys struggle defensively when forced to stop the run, against which they're dead last in DVOA and adjusted line yards.
That means Dallas' defensive struggles are as much a reflection of its offense's inability to get leads as it is its true abilities.
With the Cowboys favored by almost a touchdown against the Giants, they should spend most of this one playing from in front. That will allow Dallas to shut down the Giants and Daniel Jones while simultaneously killing the clock on offense.
Grab the 45.5 lines if possible, but I’d play Under 45 down to -110, as well.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
Malik Nabers Player Prop: Bet This Over
This line moved up to 6.5, but I'm not sure that's enough.
Nabers leads the NFL in target share among players who have played in all three games at 35.2%. Only three receivers were above 30% last season (Davante Adams, Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill) and none were above 32%. Nabers also leads the NFL in first-read target rate among players who have played in every game. This Dallas defense has allowed the highest first-read target rate.
Daniel Jones hardly throws to anyone besides Nabers, and his No. 2 target might get shut down in this one. Wan'Dale Robinson has a solid 21.9% target share, but it's all been on short routes that are close to the line of scrimmage. He has a tiny 4.3 average depth of target while running his routes almost exclusively from the slot. Well, Dallas has allowed the third-lowest rate of slot targets.
After Robinson, no other Giant has even a 10% target share. Darius Slayton is second on the team in routes run but only has 10 targets. Plus, he's questionable for this game with a thumb injury.
Nabers has a great path to maintain his massive role.
Pick: Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)
Brandon Aubrey Prop: How To Bet the NFL's Best Kicker
I love kicker props and when I bet on them, I'm typically looking for kickers that are on teams with good offenses and are favored.
Enter Brandon Aubrey and the Dallas Cowboys.
Aubrey has hit this over in 11 of 17 games last season and has made at least two field goals in all of the Cowboys' first three games this season. He's one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL and plays on an offense that has no issue moving the ball.
The problem with the Cowboys is typically capitalizing on their scoring opportunities. I'm more than fine with Dallas settling for a couple of field goals on Thursday night.
Pick: Brandon Aubrey Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-140)
