The Cowboys enter this matchup against the Giants in a tough spot with starting quarterback Dak Prescott (thumb) out indefinitely. Although backup Cooper Rush led Dallas to a victory over the Bengals last weekend, the outlook on him isn’t overly bullish.
Meanwhile, the Giants are 2-0 for the first time since 2016 — a season in which they went 11-5 and made the playoffs. Things seem to be looking up under new head coach Brian Daboll.
While these teams don't have the most prolific offenses, we should still find some value in the player props market.
We can use PrizePicks, which allows you to parlay NFL player props together and wager real money on them in 27 states.
Let’s dive into my two favorite PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football.
Daniel Jones
Over 28.5 Pass Attempts
The Giants have some issues with their receiving core, but I think Brian Daboll will let Daniel Jones sling the ball more as the weeks go on.
Jones had only 21 pass attempts in Week 1, but that number skyrocketed to 34 in Week 2. The Giants had a -15% Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1 and then a +4.7% PROE in Week 2. An uptick, but Daboll didn't look all that happy:
Brian Daboll not happy with Daniel Jones pic.twitter.com/9BzGXtP63q
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) September 11, 2022
We should expect these numbers to climb.
The Giants have often relied on Jones to throw the ball. He’s eclipsed 29 pass attempts in 19 of his last 27 starts, good for an 80% hit rate.
While the Cowboys have a solid pass defense, Joe Burrow threw the ball 36 times against them last week. Our projections have Jones at 30.9 attempts, which seems very likely given the historical trends.
Pick: Over 28.5 pass attempts
Saquon Barkley
Over 3 Receptions
I’m expecting Jones to pass a lot, and I think he is going to look for Saquon Barkley.
It’s been a weird two weeks for Barkley. He dominated Week 1 against Tennessee, leading the team in both target share (38.1%) and red-zone targets (2). He had six receptions on seven targets.
New York #Giants RB Saquon Barkley exploded for 18 carries, 6 receptions, 194 total yards and a #touchdown against Tennessee yesterday pic.twitter.com/EIPLOXARQD
— Gabriel Schray (@schrayguy) September 12, 2022
Week 2 brought a drop-off in production, with just four targets and three receptions plus a huge dip in rush production (72 yards after racking up 164 in Week 1).
However, I think Week 2 is the aberration.
Barkley actually ran 13 more routes in Week 2 (34) than he did in Week 1 (13). He is also second among all NFL players in snap count through two weeks (86%). He’s still going to get the opportunities and the offense will look to run through him.
The Cowboys led the league in Pass DVOA vs. running backs last season, but they still allowed six pass attempts per game to the position.
Plus, the projection systems love Barkley tonight, with our Action Labs Player Props Tool projecting him for 4.2 receptions and Stokastic’s Player Prop Tool projecting 4.1 receptions.
Pick: Over 3.0 Receptions
